UFC 324 marks the beginning of the Paramount+ era as Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett battle for the interim lightweight title. Our prediction centers on whether Gaethje’s elite 80% takedown defense can nullify the grappling-heavy attack of “The Baddy” over five championship rounds in Las Vegas.
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett Picks
When: Saturday, January 24, 2026
Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
TV: Paramount
Fight Analysis:
UFC 324 kicks off the combat sports year, as that part of the sports world awakens from its slumber with a big card out of Vegas. In the main event, two fan-favorites at 155 pounds will duke it out with Justin Gaethje taking on Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett. Crowd support for both will be present, with Pimblett’s contingency likely to be typically vocal. This fight is also significant because the UFC is abandoning the PPV model it had used since the organization’s inception, with future events now being held on the Paramount platform. Who should we get behind in this high-stakes lightweight main event?
Justin Gaethje, 26-5 (20 KOs, 1 Submission), (+190) vs. Paddy Pimblett, 23-3 (7 KOs, 10 Submissions), (-230)—Odds by Bovada
Justin Gaethje will battle Paddy Pimblett in the UFC 324 main event from T-Mobile Arena. The winner of this fight will be set up for lucrative future bouts at lightweight, namely a potential title shot. Gaethje, now 37, keeps bouncing back from the dead, coming off a March ’25 decision win over Rafael Fiziev. He now faces the popular contender Pimblett, six years his junior and riding a 9-fight win streak. Let’s draw the battle lines and see if it’s going to be in the young and out with the old or if Gaethje might have another big one left in him.
Gaethje has edges in top-level experience, while wielding fight-ending power that can be immediate. If someone has been a relevant 155-pounder in recent times, chances are that Gaethje has faced him. He hasn’t won them all, but he has fought the best, and it’s usually memorable, with most of his wins and all his losses being by stoppage. You’d have been extraordinarily hard-pressed when he was the unbeaten World Series of Fighting champion a dozen years ago to forecast he’d still be around with his frenetic style that sometimes eschews self-preservation. Written off for years as a result of supposed erosion, he just never goes away.
Pimblett is no doubt a top-level and versatile MMA practitioner. Sometimes more known for his memorable wacky look and his propensity to absurdly balloon up in between fights, he has still won all of his UFC fights, not without some controversy, but he’s still a contender who deserves an opportunity. His record, like most fighters, won’t hold up well in relation to Gaethje’s. Pimblett has beaten some good UFC talent, but the bigger names have faded somewhat, and you could maybe say that about this fight. But he’s definitely the more unproven part of this equation. He fought five rounds in some Cage Warriors events, but a 5-rounder in a big main event against a lethal striker like Gaethje will be a new experience.
I think some people may read too much into the notion that Pimblett has been put in easy fights. He has won all of his fights in the UFC, showcasing an ability to stop an opponent with strikes and submissions. He looked good in his last fight when he beat Michael Chandler in April of last year. And sure, it wasn’t prime Chandler, but that’s not Pimblett’s fault, nor does it mean Gaethje is going to win.
Pimblett is a multi-dimensional force, but matchup-wise, this fight presents some difficulties for the English contender. Gaethje might not use his expert wrestling much from an offensive angle, but he still has the defense of a wrestler, and Pimblett may struggle to get him down. In addition, if the fight goes into a phase where strikes are being exchanged, you’d also tend to favor the harder-hitting Gaethje. So, there being two main areas where you’d give Gaethje the edge doesn’t seem to bode well on the surface for Pimblett.
Now granted, the 25-minute distance at this level will be a challenge for Pimblett, but there is a route where he can employ his youth, energy, and ability to move to flummox Gaethje, while also setting up his own opportunities. That’s easier said than done, especially with Gaethje so adept at blasting in the kinds of leg-kicks that render an opponent’s game-plan moot. But Pimblett is also pretty handy with his kicks, while having an edge in reach where maybe he can use that quickness and length to extend Gaethje, a man who still hasn’t gone five full rounds, despite endless championship bouts on his record.
This sport favors youth. And not that there’s something antiquated about Gaethje’s style or that Pimblett is so cutting edge. But Gaethje is older. While a survivor in this sport, the end is near. He has also hinted that this would be his last fight, and while a fighter can be invigorated by the light becoming more visible at the end of the tunnel, you’d tend to prefer a fighter with a real future who is gunning for that. And it doesn’t hurt that Pimblett has ten professional submission wins, a route to victory that has worked multiple times in the UFC on Gaethje.
This is a very difficult matchup for Pimblett, forced to escape 25 minutes of the proven fight-ending techniques of the erstwhile Gaethje. He can knock your block off, is terribly hard to bring down, and he can soften you up with any number of different tactics, including soul-deadening leg kicks. I just sense Pimblett can use his length and quickness to positive effect here, skirt Gaethje’s advances, and either edge out a decision or sink in a submission. I’ll take Paddy Pimblett.
My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Paddy Pimblett at -230 betting odds. He’s younger, has less mileage on his odometer, and is the fighter in this equation with the future. He will be tested, but it’s a winnable fight, and I think Pimblett has what it takes to at least graduate past this level.
