UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 Picks
When: Saturday, October 4, 2025
Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
TV: PPV
Fight Analysis:
UFC 320 may very well be the card of the year, with a double-championship bill out of Las Vegas where the future of two key divisions will be determined. In the main event, UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Magomed Ankalaev defends his belt against the man he won it from in March, former two-division champion Alex Pereira. In the co-main event, UFC Bantamweight Champion Merab Dvalishvili looks to put a cap on a big 2025 as he makes his third title defense of the year against longtime contender Corey Sandhagen. Let’s break down these big fights from Vegas!
Magomed Ankalaev, 20-1-1 (10 KOs), (-185) vs. Alex Pereira, 12-3 (10 KOs), (+160)
UFC 205-pound champion Magomed Ankalaev makes his first title defense against ex-champ Alex Pereira. Ankalaev won a decision in March in a fight where Pereira started fast, but faded as Ankalaev shrewdly navigated his way to a 5-round points win. It was a good tactical performance from the rugged and cagey Dagestani champion. He kept the rampaging Pereira from picking up forward momentum and traction, building up a lead on the cards. Later, he tamped down all of Pereira’s advances, putting to use that unbreakable Dagestani grip and even hurting the champ, as Pereira found himself flummoxed.
As we’ve now seen with Pereira’s explosively eventful 11-fight UFC tenure, he both strikes the image as this terrifying monster, but also an imperfect fighter where there has been some give-and-take at the highest levels of the middleweight and light heavyweight divisions. And it’s almost like people don’t care, perceiving Pereira as a guy who is good enough at his best that you can overlook certain shortcomings. No one can assail his striking prowess or how he is dangerous enough to be a gargantuan threat to anybody on the UFC roster. He has still shown he can lose in a firefight, while also being troubled by more tactical fighters like Ankalaev, who rely on some other elements besides KO striking. Still, to go through the list of fighters he has with just two setbacks still paints Pereira in a good light.
Their first fight was peculiar in that while Ankalaev is a skilled striker, it was supposed to be Pereira who would do the striking, while Ankalaev did more grappling. Meanwhile, it was Ankalaev who out-struck Pereira. We saw Pereira very measured, perhaps fearing the takedown, as he was reduced to mostly kicks to the legs, as his hands did little damage. But at the same time, Ankalaev wasn’t as successful as he may have hoped in grappling, with Pereira stuffing all his takedown attempts. So, both men thrived in areas that not everyone suspected.
How that plays out in the rematch is up in the air, but maybe there’s some credence to the idea that Pereira knows better what he’s up against this time. He can go in there with the confidence that he can stuff takedowns and perhaps open things up more offensively. And with that added confidence, along with less shyness and more variety in his striking, I suspect he can maybe swing things in his favor this time. I’m going with Pereira.
My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Alex Pereira at +160 betting odds. Despite being at an age you don’t normally associate with growth at 38, I believe it is Pereira who stands to benefit most from the experience of the first fight. With his power and the urgency of this spot, along with a decent underdog price, I think it’s worth taking another whirl on “Poatan.” Bet your UFC predictions for FREE all month by scoring a 100% sportsbook bonus!
Merab Dvalishvili, 20-4 (3 KOs, 2 Submissions), (-390) vs. Corey Sandhagen, 18-5 (8 KOs, 3 Submissions), (+295)
UFC 135-pound champion Merab Dvalishvili defends his belt against contender Corey Sandhagen in the UFC 320 co-main event. Dvalishvili has been an active champion, making title defenses in January, June, and now October. He has beaten Sean O’Malley twice, also sandwiching in a defense against previously unbeaten Umar Nurmagomedov. Sandhagen, a year younger than the champion at 33, is coming off a May win over Deiveson Figueirido and, after years of knocking at the door, is finally getting a deserved title shot.
Right off the bat, the issue for Sandhagen appears to be whether or not he is who he is. With losses to fighters like Sterling, Dillashaw, Yan, and Nurmagomedov, he hasn’t been able to rise above the last few waves of top 135-pounders. Now you have what appears to be a fighter in Dvalishvili who has rounded into peak form with a dominant run to the title and a pair of defenses. How realistic is it that Sandhagen now is able to take his place among the elite? You have to hand it to Sandhagen, as it isn’t easy to contend in a division for as long as he has. But up to now, he hasn’t been a guy who can get past the top talent, while Dvalishvili has shown he most certainly can.
You see a guy like Dvalishvili, in his mid-thirties, sitting on four losses, and with just five stoppage wins in 24 fights. It might seem easier on paper. This is a man who has not lost since 2017, with his rise to the top being easier than could have been reasonably suspected. We saw him take Nurmagomedov to school earlier this year, the same Nurmagomedov who beat Sandhagen two fights ago.
I still think Sandhagen can give Dvalishvili a good scrap. Simply put, Sandhagen is very good. I think whether he’s dishing it out or it’s coming his way, his grappling is markedly underrated. We’ve seen him vary his approach from a more free-wheeling style to a measured style where perhaps he’s trying to be too perfect. Maybe he can find the right balance and give Merab a really hard time. I just see the ground control of Dvalishvili and his non-stop motor giving him a big edge in the latter half of the fight, as he cruises to another decision win. I’m taking Dvalishvili.
My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Merab Dvalishvili at -390 betting odds. While Sandhagen is accustomed to the 5-round distance, going the full 25 with Dvalishvili presents extreme challenges to anyone at 135 pounds. The challenger may fare better in some areas where he seems overmatched, but in the end, Dvalishvili will grind his way to another successful title defense.
Did you know that you can bet on fights for as little as one dollar? Check out our list of sportsbooks offering $1 minimum bets!
