UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 Picks
When: Saturday, December 6, 2025
Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
TV: PPV
Fight Analysis:
UFC 323 is a big card out of Vegas, important for several reasons. One is that it’s the UFC’s last big event of the year. It’s also the last time they operate on their typical model, the last fight before they switch to Paramount as their new platform, sort of bringing to an end the PPV format that has been used for decades. But beyond that is a massive card where the immediate future of the bantamweight and flyweight divisions will be decided in a pair of title bouts. Let’s break it down!
Merab Dvalishvili, 21-4 (3 KOs, 2 Submissions), (-490) vs. Petr Yan, 19-5 (7 KOs, 1 Submission), (+355)—Odds by Bovada
UFC Bantamweight Champion Merab Dvalishvili will defend his title against former champion Petr Yan in the main event of UFC 323. Dvalishvili will be looking to become the first UFC champ to defend his title four times in a single calendar year, having beaten Cory Sandhagen, Sean O’Malley, and Umar Nurmagomedov already this year. On his way to the title, he also beat Yan in 2023, winning a 5-round decision. Briefly the UFC champ at 135 pounds in 2020-21, Yan has won three straight fights to put himself in line for another shot.
The career of Yan, two years younger than Merab at 32, has been strange. Leading up to 2020, he got on a big winning streak and won the vacant belt after some wins over the old guard—guys like Urijah Faber and Jose Aldo. But things seemed to go off the rails when tangling with the new wave of bantamweights, as he lost his belt to Aljamain Sterling, losing to him again in the rematch, before losing to O’Malley and then Dvalishvili. He looked to be in a funk, with some strategic flaws undermining his success. At the same time, the losses to Sterling in the rematch and O’Malley were only split decision losses, and when he lost his title, it was on a DQ in a fight where he was ahead on the cards. In other words, maybe the losses painted him in an overly unflattering light. And maybe this latest three-fight win streak supports that a bit.
It’s just such a tough stylistic matchup for the Russian former champion. With Yan, the idea is to get close, work his boxing, his Thai kickboxing, and let his striking acumen rise to the top with the stance switches and fluidity he possesses. But he likes to be calculating, taking his time, and advancing slowly so he can close and utilize his trips and sweeps. Against Dvalishvili, that just puts you in his crosshairs. And in the first fight, it was more than the record 49 takedown attempts, as Dvalishvili was also crunching Yan’s leg with calf-kicks.
I suppose maybe Yan can hope that Dvalishvili has bitten off more than he can chew, getting no rest as he bounces from one training camp to the next. It could also mean that he’s rolling really well right now, as the Georgian champion is the kind of fighter who can thrive amidst such a hectic schedule. It would be one thing if the recent striking of Yan was yielding knockout wins at the highest level, but it’s not. And therefore, it’s not easy to envision a path to victory for the challenger. I’m taking Merab Dvalishvili in this one.
My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Merab Dvalishvili at -490 betting odds. I think Dvalishvili is a bad matchup for Yan, and with some improved striking, those who are willing to take a risk on a fighter who doesn’t score a ton of stoppages, that one could be in the offing in this fight on Bovada at a tantalizing +225.
Alexandre Pantoja, 30-5, 8 KOs, 12 Submissions), (-205) vs. Joshua Van, 15-2 (7 KOs, 2 Submissions), (+173)—Odds by Bovada
UFC Flyweight Champion Alexandre Pantoja defends his title for the fifth time against contender Joshua Van on the UFC 323 co-main event. Pantoja won the title from Brandon Moreno in 2023, defending it with two decision wins, before stopping his last two challengers with choke-submissions, the last one over Kai-Kara France in June. Van, 11 years younger than Pantoja at 24, had a circuitous route to the UFC, born in war-torn Myanmar, migrating to Malaysia, and with his family eventually settling in Houston. With five wins in a row and 13 in his last 14, we’ll see if he can be a dangerous challenger to a champion who has been on a nice roll.
Van might be the best boxer at 125 pounds. But the champion Pantoja is a rugged fighter, never stopped in a 35-fight career. He is a savage in the octagon, using his energy, ground game, and strength to quell opponents. And so far, no one at 125 pounds has been able to stop it in recent years. He’s not the most technical of strikers and can appear raw, but he throws a lot at his opponent, and surviving 25 minutes of this is no breeze. He throws a lot of strength, tenacity, and pace at his opponents, who are often left drowning.
Van really upped his profile by beating a good striker and well-rounded fighter in Brandon Royval in his last fight, who Pantoja has also beaten. But Pantoja has been in with the far better company and won’t be nearly as cooperative as Royval was. He won’t be looking to trade or box, but rather to get in close, get his hands on Van, take him down, and have him at the mercy of some of the best choke-offense in the game. Van is not a no-hoper. His takedown defense has been on display, and he is a very talented striker. But I see the more all-around game of Pantoja winning the day. I’m taking Alexandre Pantoja to retain his title.
My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Alexandre Pantoja at -205 betting odds. I think the striking of Van looms as a threat in his bout, but that the energy, pace, strength, and ground game of Pantoja will allow him to remain the top force at 125 pounds.
