RBD’s UFL playoff card opens with Louisville at St. Louis, fading the Battlehawks at home and riding the hot hand of the surging Kings.
Louisville Kings at St Louis Battlehawks
Saturday, June 6th
The 2026 UFL season has come to an end.
Congrats to DC, Orlando, Louisville, and St Louis for making the postseason playoffs.
The books have made both Hm teams small Favs, Orlando -3′, St Louis -2′.
For my first bet I’m turning to the Louisville/St. Louis game. Let’s look at some stats.
The Battlehawks have the better defense.
In fact, St Louis has the second best defense in the league, allowing just 19 PPG, second only to Orlando’s 18.6 PPG.
Louisville finished the season with the second best offense scoring 26.5 PPG, second only to DC’s 28 PPG.
So we have a classic matchup of a good defense versus a good offense. In the playoffs, the general rule of thumb is to go with the better defense, but I’m going the other way on this one and taking the better offense.
I have a couple reasons for my play.
First, I like riding the hot hand and the Kings come into this one after winning four in a row and five of their last six, while St. Louis has lost two of their last three, including one to last place Houston.
I watched their last three games and didn’t like what I saw, especially from QB Luis Perez and head coach Ricky Proehl.
Over the last three games I noticed something missing in Perez – confidence. Yes, he was a late addition to the team but he’s been there for a few weeks now and he still has that deer-in-the-headlights look.
In their final game, after having a couple of weeks to try and get comfortable with this offense, he threw one TD against two INT’s. And walking off the field after unsuccessful drives he looked confused and frustrated.
Then there’s HC Proehl. I’ve learned one thing from watching him in this, his inaugural season as a head coach – talent at wide receiver does not transfer to talent as a head coach. More than a few times this season I’ve wondered how he got the job. His play calling is head scratching stuff and when it comes to clock management and time outs he’s almost as clueless as Houston’s Kevin Sumlin.
In their loss last week Perez was sacked a total of seven times.
Yes, a lot of the blame goes to the offensive line but at some point the quarterback has to realize he needs to get the ball out of his hands and not take the sack and loss of yardage. But part of the blame goes to Proehl for his play calling, which should have been adjusted to include some two-step drop quick passes, to help keep his quarterback out of trouble.
I noticed one other thing I didn’t like while watching last week’s game – Perez did some finger pointing and complaining after ineffective drives, not a good sign for a QB heading into the playoffs.
Despite having the biggest home field advantage in the league (they average more fans in the stands per game than any other team) St. Louis barely managed to finish with a winning home record at 3-2.
The Kings went 4-1 on the Rd, further reducing the Battlehawks edge at home.
St Louis won the week 6 meeting between these two teams. They managed to score only 13 points but held the Kings to just six.
But that was a King’s team who hadn’t found its groove yet and the loss gives them the added edge of revenge this week.
That was the last game the Kings lost this season. They finished the year with four straight wins, including two big wins over another playoff contender, DC.
When the playoffs were on the line, and the money was on the table, they stepped up and grabbed the brass ring (unlike the Birmingham Ponies, who lost their last two games to two last place teams and got KO’d from the post season.)
In their final four games the Louisville offense found their rhythm, scoring 30, 33, 37, and 42.
Each week they showed improvement, scoring more points than the week before.
I got the hotter team, momentum, and the better head coach on my side with this play.
The line opened at St Louis -2′, -110.
Extra juice is being added to the Battlehawks and I’m looking for two factors to contribute to the line moving even further in my favor.
1 – It’s early in the week, public money hasn’t come in yet, and the public loves to bet the Favorite. I expect Saturday and Sunday money to come in on the Hm team.
2 – The Battlehawks won the previous meeting in decisive fashion which should add to bettors liking them in the rematch.
My play:
Louisville (wait to buy it)
Recap: 0-1
Record: 7-9
Review
I went back to the Houston game Over (44′) for the third week in a row and the Gamblers rewarded me by scoring 26 points.
Unfortunately, home team Birmingham screwed me scoring just 13, leaving me short once again.
In week 9, the Stallions were on the outside looking in at the playoff picture, but they controlled their destiny. They had two games left on the schedule.
In week 9 they lost SU to the last place Columbus Aviators.
They followed that up with a week 10 loss to the last place Houston Gamblers.
Needing a win, and at home, they managed to only score six points (seven of the 13 came from a Pick 6.)
Two weeks, two chances to make the playoffs, two losses to two last place teams.
Too crappy for words.
Down 26-13 with 3:52 on the clock, 4th and 9 on their own 28-yard line, head coach AJ McCarron decides he has to punt.
As I shook my head at the decision one of the announcers said, “The punting unit is coming out? There’s not enough time. They only have two time outs, they’re down two scores. The playoffs are on the line.”
And his partner in the booth said, “With that punt, Birmingham just punted on their season.”
Once again, the announcers in the booth (and no doubt, fans watching at home) know more about coaching and clock management than the coach on the field.
I have to check that Kalshi joint to see if they offer odds on the first UFL coach to be fired.
If they do, I’m all over McCarron getting the ax.
