RBD fades the T1 Under model on tonight’s Atlanta Dream at Washington Mystics matchup, backed by rested-team trends, team-specific edges, and a big head-to-head Over from earlier this season.
Atlanta Dream at Washington Mystics
A Pick on the Total
I missed with my last pick, Under in the Commissioners Cup Championship Game.
I was in good shape going into the 4th quarter.
As long as the point total of the final 10 minutes did not exceed any of the previous three quarters I’d have a winner.
Ended up losing by three points.
This puts me back to three games under .500 so I’ve got a little bit of work to do. My goal is to get back to even by the All-Star break in three weeks.
Today I have three spots that qualify for the handicapping process I use to isolate sides and totals to try and exploit.
One of them has a record of 8-8 and one has a record of 12-10. Neither provides me with an edge.
The third qualifies for my T1 model for picking totals.
T1 says the Atlanta game with Washington stays Under the post total tonight.
T1 has an overall record of 21-25, no real edge there, but in the subcategory where I break it down into Ov/Un, the Under has a record of 9-15 providing a 62% edge by Fading it.
Being that both teams are coming off an extended break due to the Commissioner’s Cup, I thought I’d do a quick look back to see how the rested teams did on the total in their first game back. I checked 2025 and 2026 and I see that the games went 5-1 Ov/Un.
Being that I’m Fading the under tonight I gotta love those numbers.
Next step, digging into team specific stats – have Atlanta and Washington been in the T1 Under spot previously this season and if so, what is their record?
Atlanta has been in the spot twice, and split, one game stayed Under, one went Over.
Washington has been in this spot three times and two of the three games went Over.
So, a little bit of an edge for fading the Under based on those numbers.
How about with four or more days of rest or more this season?
Atlanta is 1-2 Ov/Un (no help for an Over bettor)
Washington is 3-0 (nice edge for an Over bettor.)
Both teams’ season-long stats show a slight edge for the Over at 10-9 and 10-8.
Five of Washington’s last eight Hm games have gone Over the total, and six of eight of Atlanta’s last games, Hm/Rd have gone Over.
Finally, I have this:
Head to head, they’ve met once this season.
The total was 160, the game landed on 186, sailing over by 26 points.
Tonight’s game opened at 165′ and is up to 167′.
I’m buying it now before it goes any higher.
My play:
Atlanta/Wash Ov 167′
Recap: 0-1
Record: 12-15
