RBD takes the Indiana Fever with the points on the road in Minnesota, backed by a 3-1 team-specific edge in the WF1 model and a Lynx home ATS record of just 5-10.
Indiana Fever at Minnesota Lynx
A Pick on the Spread
It’s a prime matchup today as the visiting Caitlin’s take on Napheesa “Fee” Collier and the Lynx.
We get the number one offense (Indiana) taking on the number two defense (Minnesota.)
At first glance, the Lynx look to be red hot, coming in as winners of nine straight.
But like I always say, dig deeper, don’t just glance at the surface. And if you do dig deeper for a closer look you’ll find that ALL nine wins have come against teams with losing records, including five to the dregs of the league, the three teams with the worst records: Seattle, Connecticut, and Toronto.
Indiana comes in on a five game W streak.
Like the Lynx, most of those wins came against teams with losing records, but they do have a quality win against New York mixed in there.
I’m riding with the Caitlin’s but not loving my pick.
Not due to any aspect of the stats and reasons for the pick itself, but because I like choice.
Give me multiple plays to choose from and I have a higher percentage of picking a winner. But today, I only have one option available from the handicapping models I use.
WF1 says Minnesota is the Wrong Favorite today; take Indiana.
WF1 has a record of just 5-6 on Rd teams, like the Caitlin’s today.
So why am I buying a play with a 5-6 losing record?
Because of the team specific stats.
Three times this season Indiana has been in the WF1 spot as the team that should have been made a Favorite.
Their record is 2-1.
Minnesota has been the team my stats said should not be the Favorite in just one game this season.
And, they lost the game SU.
Using team specific numbers I have a 3-1 edge.
And since most of my models are kicking out at around .500 this season it’s not a stretch to look for this one to go to 6-6.
The game opened at Minnesota -6′.
The current number is -5′.
Straight up, Indiana is 8-5, so no worries about them playing on the Rd today.
That’s offset though by Minnesota’s 11-4 record at home.
But I’m not betting SU and the ATS numbers work in my favor.
Indiana stays the same at 8-5 ATS, but I get a nice edge Fading the Lynx who are just 5-10 ATS at home, a 67% edge.
Indiana has been a Dog just seven times this season and they have a winning record at 4-3.
Two of the losses came in back-to-back games against one of the best teams in the league, fifth place Atlanta. The other loss was to NY.
This is the first time these two have played each other this year so there’s no head-to-head data to look at.
They split last season, going 2-2 both SU and ATS.
Injuries of note – Clark and Boston are both listed as day-to-day, but expected to play.
The big news is on the Minnesota side where one of the league’s best players, Napheesa Collier, is finally back in the lineup.
That’s not good news for Indiana backers as the Lynx are 3-0 since her return.
On the flip side of the coin though the three wins have come against Toronto and Seattle, two of the three worst teams in the league.
My play:
Indiana +5′
Recap: 1-0
Record: 23-20
Review:
My last pick was Chicago team total over 90′.
Q1: They score 24 points.
Extrapolates out to 96.
I’m ahead of the pace that I need.
Q2: They score just 16 points.
They’re 2 for 15 for three pointers.
They’re on pace to score 80, 11 points fewer than I need. I’m in trouble. I’m going to need them to average 25 points over the next two quarters.
Slim chance of that happening.
Q3: They put up 21.
With 61 points scored I need a 30 point quarter, rare in the WNBA.
With quarters of 24, 16, and 21 it looks like I’ll need overtime.
Q4: 34 points.
NEXT!!!
