RBD backs the Caitlin-less Indiana Fever as road dogs against the Phoenix Mercury in tonight’s WNBA matchup, riding a Flip Flop Fav angle and a gut-feel revenge play.
Indiana Fever at Phoenix Mercury
A Betting Prediction on the Fever without Caitlin Clark
Tonight finds Indiana in Game Two of B2B’s.
Here’s a refresher on the Game Two Ov/Un records for when teams play two nights in a row.
2024: 18-12, 60%
2025: 17-6, 73%
And now this season, 2026, 4-1, 80%.
Combined record, three seasons: 39-19, 67%.
Makes tonight an easy decision, play the Indiana game Over, yes?
No.
Last night the game between the Fever and Sparks went Over the posted total.
The strongest position for playing a game Two Over is when game two went Under.
When Game One of B2B’s is an Under, the Ov/Un record for Game Two the last two seasons is 17-11, 60%.
This season it’s 4-1.
The 3-year total is now 21-12, 63%.
Last night’s game went Over, which has me taking a closer look at buying the Over tonight.
Here’s what I found.
When their previous game was an Over, Indiana has an Ov/Un record of 5-6 in their next game. A losing record.
When Indiana is coming off a loss in their previous game, the Ov/Un in their next game is 3-5. Another losing record.
Also, as I pointed out in my post in the PredictEm Forum yesterday, the only loss on a Game Two of B2B’s this season is when the opening total dropped.
Tonight’s game immediately dropped from an opening 175′ to 174′. And it’s still going down, currently sitting at 172′.
Too many stats point to staying off the Over in tonight’s game, despite the 4-1 Game Two of B2B’s record this season and 39-19 over the past three years.
But I will have action on the game.
I’m taking the Caitlin-less Fever as Rd Dogs.
Even people who don’t follow the WNBA are aware of the controversy with Phoenix players mauling Caitlin Clark last week, including a video that went viral of Alyssa Thomas putting her fist on Caitlin’s throat and pushing down on it while Clark was laying on the floor.
(And Thomas, predictably, is claiming to be the victim in the incident due to all the backlash she’s receiving for her thug tactics.)
The outrage is so loud that even the government is calling for hearing on the incident, to call the WNBA to task for ignoring all the abuse Clark receives.
(Of course, being the US government, they’ll do what they always do – form a committee, hold hearings, express outrage, and then . . . not do a damn thing about it.)
Clark won’t be in the lineup tonight because she played limited minutes last night and is still recovering from her injury.
This sucks because it takes away from the drama of seeing her on the court with Thomas and her criminal cohorts tonight.
But my gut feel tells me her teammates, especially Sophie Cunningham, will come out and play with extra intensity due to what the Mercury did to their teammate in the previous meeting.
And Aliyah Boston will be back on the floor for Indiana tonight – that’s a big plus for anyone backing the Fever.
Aside from that gut feel, the game qualifies for one of my handicapping models, WF1.
WF1 says Indy should be the Favorite tonight.
WF1 Rd teams have a slight edge with a record of 10-8. It’s not a bet I should make. Wanting to see good triumph over evil is not a club in the handicappers bag. Even more so because I’m in a negative balance for the season. But I’m going to watch this one with a rooting interest for the Clarks, and so I’m backing them with a couple bucks.
Indiana lost last night. The Fever are 5-2 SU after a loss in their previous game.
We have a Flip Flop Fav in this one. Indy was -1′, now they’re +1′.
And damn me for being slack in my ‘capping, I don’t have ATS stats for when a Fav becomes the Dog. I only have one gamesl charted. On May 10th, Seattle went from -1′ to +1′, just like the Caitlin’s tonight. The Storm won SU and covered.
My play:
Ind +1’
Recap: 0-1
Record: 13-18
Review:
Back to five games under .500 as Indy jumped out to an early 10-point lead and then let the lowly LA Sparks go on a 16-2 run. And it was all downhill from there as they ended up losing by 14 points.
