Phoenix Mercury at Washington Mystics
I banked a win last night with the Over in the LV/Minn game, using the same model I lost with the previous night. I have another game that qualifies tonight using that same model and I’m going to ride it again.
My T1 system says Phx/Wash stays Under today’s posted total.
T1’s record on Unders is 11-21, a 65% Fade.
It also qualifies for the same subcategory as last night’s game. That record is now 4-8, a 67% fade.
And, just like yesterday’s game, when I look at both of these teams’ performance in this model this season I get two records that point to an Over.
Phoenix has qualified three times and two of the three have gone Over.
Even better, Washington has qualified seven times and five of seven have gone Over.
That’s a combined 3-7, good for a 70% Fade.
Looking at recent play, three of Phoenix’s last five games have gone Over the total and three of Washington’s last five games have gone Over the total.
I also get a line that has moved in my favor.
This one opened at 169′ and has been bet down to 167′.
My play:
Phx/Wash Ov (wait to buy, the number is dropping)
Recap: 1-0
Record: 24-23
Note – the Las Vegas Aces and Minnesota Lynx played last night, putting them in the Game Two of B2B’s spot.
This is the first time this year that Minnesota has played two days in a row, no data to help us there.
The Aces have been in this spot twice this season and both times Game Two went Over.
I’m taking a closer look at the Vegas game, and also looking at some some player props based on how coach Becky Hammon uses her players in Game Two of B2B’s – do they play fewer minutes in Game One so they’ll have some energy left for Game Two, or do they play their standard minutes in Game One and play less in Game Two?
I’ll be spending the next hour or so finding out.
Check the forum for updates later this morning.
