Phoenix Mercury at Connecticut Sun
I only have so many hours each day to dedicate to handicapping. With the start of college football and the NFL I’m going to cut back on WNBA handicapping and buying plays.
This is something I’ve been contemplating doing anyway. I try to keep politics out of my articles (and my life) and for the most part I’m successful, but it’s hard to ignore the blatant hypocrisy of a WNBA head coach (Minnesota’s Cheryl Reeve) who complains that too many men are taking WNBA head coaching jobs from women while at the same time wants to includes trans athletes on the court to take jobs away from real women.
Not to mention the league sanctioned attacks on Clark, and now Cunningham, too.
The WNBA is a mess.
They’re running a lot of commercials celebrating that they’re in their 30th year but they fail to mention that they’re still subsidized by the NBA.
Yes, even after 30 years they’re still losing money.
They’ve concealed their 2025 season numbers but in 2024 they had losses between 40-50 million for the year.
I’m done with them, but I’m not about to surrender in my Battle with the Books just yet. And I’m not going to leave any readers who may have been betting along with me in the negative, so hopefully I can finish the season with a few W’s. I’m currently at 23-22. Factoring in the juice I’m about one game underwater, easily recoverable.
Let’s get to it.
Tonight I’m on the Over in the Phx/Con game.
My handicapping model T1 says the game stays Under the posted total.
T1 Unders have a record of 10-20, giving me a 67% Fade.
The game also qualifies for one of the subcategories that I track. The record for Unders in this spot is 3-7, a 70% Fade.
The Phoenix Mercury offense was averaging 84 points per game. Then they acquired Stephanie Plum.
In their two games with Plum in the lineup they’re averaging 94 PPG.
Looking at it from a team specific angle, Phoenix has been in the T1 Under spot twice and both games went Over. But that’s offset by Connecticut being 2-0 to the Over in the spot.
The game opened at 173′ and is up to 174′ at most books. Using the current number and looking at current play from both teams, the Mercury would be 4-1 Ov/Un. The Sun would be 3-2, both stats favoring an Over for tonight’s game.
Head to Head, they played twice this season, both games in Phoenix.
The first game saw 179 points scored which would be Over tonight’s number.
The second meeting saw only 135 points scored, far below tonight’s number, mainly due to a combined 6 for 29 from three point range.
The Sun return home after a six game road trip and are off of four days rest. Hopefully those fresh legs will translate into points tonight.
My play:
Phx/Con Ov 174′
Recap: 0-1
Record: 23-22
Recap:
I used the “Over in Game Two of B2B’s” spot, in LA/Min.
Going into the game, Minnesota was in first place, with a record of 25-6.
They are the best team in the league.
They were at home.
They lost, STRAIGHT UP, as 15 point Favorites.
They lost, to the team with the worst defense in the league.
They scored just 82 points against a team that gives up an average of 94 PPG.
Slackers.
