RBD takes the Over on tonight’s Minnesota Lynx at Seattle Storm WNBA matchup, picking through eight qualifying spots to land on a T1/T2 head-to-head total play.
Minnesota Lynx at Seattle Storm
A Pick on the Total
When I’m finished with my morning handicapping I hope to have a choice of a few different spots to pick from. But I don’t like having too much choice and today I have a ridiculous eight spots to choose from.
I’m going to list them all here, with the records for the plays, in case anyone’s looking for edges on these games.
WF1 (one of my two models for identifying teams where the books made the wrong team the Fav) has two teams that qualify, Seattle and Portland.
The record for this play overall is 13-15.
But only five of those games have been Hm teams like both spots today, and the record on Hm teams in this spot is 1-4, a solid Fade.
Portland 0-2 as WF1 but both were Rd games, they’re at Hm today. Dallas is 4-3 as Rd Fav’s.
Sea is 1-2 but again all three were Rd games.
Two games qualify for my T1 Ov/Un model.
LV/Wash Un and Min/Sea Ov.
The overall record for the spot is 24-33.
Broken down at the subcategory of Ov/Un I have it at Ov 14-14, Un 10-19.
No edge on Overs but a good Fade on the Under at 65%.
But I don’t trust Washington to score enough to get the game to go Over. It’s the same thing I thought when they played Golden State in their last game and that one did manage to go Over. I’m doubting they can do it two games in a row.
And I have four games that qualify for the T2 Ov/Un system, all Unders.
Phx/LA, Min/Sea, Chi/NY, Con/Ind.
The record on Unders in T2 is . . . I don’t know.
I’m on the road and I forgot to record it on my phone before I left my house this morning.
I know that going into the weekend it was 23-21 so no real edge to play ON or AGAINST there.
I have a rare head-to-head spot.
T1 says the Minnesota game goes Over, T2 says it stays Under. I’ve had four of these this season and the record is 2-2, so no edge for me to exploit there either.
But Min is 1-0 in this head-to-head spot.
Minnesota and Seattle faced each other in their last game and the total landed on 207.
Today’s game opened as low as 173′ and is currently up to 178′. One of my basic rules for sports betting is “Don’t bet if the line has moved more than three points against you.”
But rules are made to be broken.
My play:
Min/Sea Ov 178′
Recap: 1-0
Record: 21-19
Review:
I have NY/Dal Over 174′.
I get 47 points in Q1.
I get 50 in Q2.
I go into the second half needing just 78 points, 39 per quarter, after getting 47 and 50 in the first two quarters.
This one looks easy.
But . . . it’s the WNBA.
In Q3 New York shot a disgusting ZERO for 10 in the first 7 minutes of the 10-point quarter.
They managed just one point, by a free throw.
They were one of 15.
Then two of 16.
They finished at three of 18.
THREE of EIGHTEEN!!!
They finished with just nine points.
Yes, a single digit quarter from a team that’s supposed to be one of the best in the league.
I’m still alive going into Q4 though.
I need 48 points.
I got 47 in Q1 and 50 in Q2 so it’s not out of the realm of possibilities.
But . . . they only score 39.
But . . . OT!!!
The game lands on 197.
Cha-ching!
Game Two of B2B’s is now 9-1 (with an asterisk next to it in my notebook, noting that one game needed OT to go Over.)
No more spots until August.
I hope you guys have been following along with me on this play over the last three seasons as it’s now 43-19, an amazing 69%!!!
