Washington Mystics at Phoenix Mercury
On August 9th, I did a write up, analysis, and buy recommendation on Phoenix at Washington to go Over the total of 167′.
Despite a 14 point third quarter from Phoenix the game landed on 170 for a W.
I don’t like going back to the same play on the same two teams but I have to do what the numbers tell me to do.
Here’s what I have for tonight’s game.
My T1 handicapping system says this game stays Under total.
T1 Unders have a record of 12-24.
That’s a 67% Fade.
The 12-24 record noted above is for all WNBA teams.
When I check out the team specific stats the numbers get even better.
Washington has qualified for a T1 Under eight times and has a record of 2-6.
Phoenix has qualified four times and has a record of 1-3.
Both of those stats give me a 75% Fade on today’s Under between these two teams.
The game opened at 166′ and has been bet up to 167′.
On the season, Washington is 19-18 Ov/Un.
Phoenix is 19-17.
Again both stats have a slight edge to the Over.
On the Rd, Washington is 7-10 Ov/Un, a stat that doesn’t favor an Over tonight, but that stat is more than OVERcome by the fact that Phoenix is 12-5 Ov/Un at Hm.
Three of the Mystic’s last five games have gone Over tonight’s number. Only two of the Mercury’s last five have gone Over tonight’s number.
in their only other meeting this season, poor shooting by Phoenix in the second and third quarters (17 and 14 points) almost cost me a win on my wager on the Over. That night, the Mercury were playing their fourth straight road game in six nights. We’ll get a better performance out of them tonight, at home, with a couple days rest.
My play:
Wash/Phx Ov 167′.
Recap: 1-0
Record: 28-24
Review:
Banked a unit using the Game Two of B2B’s spot with the Caitlin’s. (Mistake – in the summary at the bottom of the page it said, My play Ind/Chi Un, but the entire write-up, and the “Wait to Buy” recommendation because the total was dropping, was focused on the Over and the B2B numbers.
And, Mark your Calendar:
Connecticut plays tonight.
Connecticut plays again tomorrow night.
You KNOW what that means.
