RBD takes the Over on tonight’s rescheduled New York Liberty at Dallas Wings WNBA matchup, riding a 42-19 three-season Game Two B2B trend despite the Paige Bueckers concussion news.
New York Liberty at Dallas Wings
A Pick on the Total
The New York Liberty had a game canceled last week because of travel difficulties.
The league rescheduled it for today, Monday, July 20th.
At Dallas.
Dallas was supposed to be off today, but no.
And Dallas played last night.
You know what that means.
WNBA teams when playing Game Two of B2B’s, Ov/Un:
2024: 18-12, 60%
2025: 17-6, 73%
2026: 8-1, 88%
Combined: 42-19, 69%.
I used this spot again on Saturday in the Indiana game and it won.
I’ll offer the same advice I always give – if you’ve already banked a few units you may as well ride this horse until it bucks you.
If you haven’t played yet, you run the risk of being Johnny-Come-Lately, jumping on an already established streak and falling prey to Reversion Toward the Mean.
I bought this game last night and sent out an Early Buy notice in the PredictEm Forum (be sure to check the Forum on a regular basis for updates.)
I bought it early because seven of the nine qualifying games this season saw the line go higher.
The only two games that saw the line drop were due to injuries, for example Caitlin Clark was out in one of them.
And I got burned by the injury bug today.
I bought it at 174′ anticipating it to go higher, but found out Dallas star and top scorer Page Bueckers is out, concussion protocol.
It dropped to 172′.
So, bad move buying it early, yes?
Well, yes and no.
I missed out on the best number at 172′, but I was correct in that the line will go higher because right now it’s back up, anywhere from 175′ to 177.
So in a weird occurrence I both screwed up AND did the right thing by buying early!
Page averages 21 points a game, so I’m going to need her fellow guard Azzi Fudd (no relation to Elmer) to step up and play BIG tonight.
And I’m going to need some help from Bueckers’ replacements, likely to be Odyssey Sims and Aziaha James.
Paige has been durable, so I have no history to look at of how Dallas performs when she’s out of the starting lineup. No matter, I’m committed now because I bought the game last night.
And I’m okay with that.
I’m also taking a hard look at the Wash/GS game to go Over, based on my handicapping models.
I say “hard” look because it’s tough to play an Over with this incompetent Washington offense and their league low 79 PPG.
But my number say the game goes Over tonight so I’m going to dig deeper into the stats and I’ll post an update later today in the Forum.
My play:
NY/Dal Ov 174′
Recap: 3-0
Record: 20-19
Review:
Nailed all three plays from my last article.
Scored using the Over with Indiana in the Game Two of B2B’s spot.
The total was 179′.
The game landed on 196.
Won again with Port/Min, Fading my T1 Under model with its record of 10-17.
It’s now 10-18, good for a 64% Fade the next time it pops up.
The total was 174′.
The game landed on 194.
And in the third bet I used Wash/GS because it qualified for a rare T2 Over spot.
There have only been five of these plays this season and that 1-4 record screamed, “Fade Me!”
The total was a super low 149.
The game landed on an even lower 143.
NEXT!!!
