RBD fades the T1 Under model and takes the Over on this morning’s Seattle Storm at Chicago Sky WNBA matchup, backed by team-specific edges combining for a 77% Fade record.
Seattle Storm at Chicago Sky
A Pick on the Total
Short write-up because of a 12:00 p.m. EST start, I want to get this article submitted early so people have a couple hours to see it before the game’s tip off time.
Each season the WNBA schedules a week of games that are played early in the morning during the week, offering discount rates to different camp groups.
These teams are not used to playing in the morning. Knowing the tendency towards WNBA games trending to the Under on weekend morning games, I tracked last season’s Kid Camp games to see how they did on the Ov/Un on midweek games.
I have eight spots charted.
The Ov/Un is 2-6.
Small data sample but it would tend to make me lean toward Unders.
Which sucks because I have an Over today.
My handicapping model T1 says Sea/Chi stays Under.
T1 has an overall record of 22-30, a 57% edge when Fading it, one point under the 58% cut off I use for making my bets.
But in the subcategory of Ov/Un the record for Unders is 10-17. That gives me an edge of 67% when Fading, nine points over my cutoff of 58%.
But wait, there’s more!
Those are league stats, covering all teams.
When I break the record down into team specific stats here’s what I have.
Seattle has qualified for the T1 Under spot four times this season. Their record is 1-3; three of the four games have gone Over.
And the play looks even better when I look at Chicago in the T1 Under spot.
Chicago has qualified five times and their Ov/Un record is 1-4.
So I have a basic spot, T1 Under, that’s 10-17, a 67% Fade.
I have both teams specific stats giving me solid edges on the Over today, a combined 2-7, a 77% edge for the Fade.
Hard to ignore numbers like those.
The only downside is, like I said, it’s an early morning Kid Camp game which my data sample says avoid playing the Over.
But that’s a small data sample of just eight games.
And it’s even smaller because we had one Kid Camp game yesterday, Portland Connecticut.
The total was 167.
The game landed on 177 for an Over.
I’m hoping this morning’s game finds that 2-6 now 3-6 trend continuing to level out.
My play:
Seattle/Chi Ov 171
Recap: 2-0
Record: 16-18
Review:
Banged both plays on Sunday.
Hit with my article pick on the Washington game to go Over, and my Early Buy notice from Saturday came through on Sunday when the Vegas Aces went Over in the Game Two of B2B’s spot.
