RBD rides the hot hand with the T1 model on a third straight WNBA Over, taking Chicago at Connecticut backed by team-specific edges and a Monday angle.
Chicago Sky at Connecticut Sun
A Pick on the Total
I closed out the weekend strong, going 2-0, cutting my deficit in half. I’m now only two games below .500.
Today I’m sticking with what worked in both of those two games, relying on my model for picking totals, T1.
T1 says today’s Con/Chi game goes Over.
T1’s record this season is 20-16 overall, 11-7 on Overs, good for a solid 61% winning edge.
On Friday, T1 was at 9-7, 56%. That was two points under the usual cut off I use to make plays, 58%.
Do I bet on every game that qualifies at 58% or better for my handicapping models?
No.
I look to subcategories to find higher winning percentages, for example Hm/Rd, or team specific records (how a specific team performs when they’re in that particular model.)
Despite being two points under my cutoff of 58%, Connecticut had a solid 3-0 record when they were in the T1 Over spot on Friday so I made the bet.
(Remember, jumping on over the established trends is a sure way to lose your bankroll. You have to anticipate them and jump on early to bank a few units.)
The total was 168. It landed on 198, good for an easy win by 30 points.
I came back with the same play, T1 Ov on Saturday, with Ind/ATL. The total was 176′. It landed on 209, good for another easy winner as it cleared the bar by 32 points.
And as long as it’s hot, I’m riding with it again today.
Today’s game opened at 167′ and is up to 169′. I’m buying it now as the line is moving against me and I don’t expect to see a buy back.
Overall this season, Chicago is 9-6 Ov/Un, Connecticut is 10-7.
Looking at Team Specific numbers, Chicago’s record in T1 Over is 0-0, tonight is the first time they qualify for this spot. Connecticut is now 4-0 Ov in this spot.
How about those start-of-the-week Monday blues, do they have any effect on my model?
T1 has had two games qualify for an Over on Mondays this season. The record is 2-0.
My play:
Chi/Con Ov 169′
Recap: 1-0
Record: 9-11
