RBD posts an Early Buy Notice on the LA Sparks at Minnesota Lynx Game Two of B2B’s, riding a 42-19 three-season Over trend and betting Minnesota’s home scoring against LA’s league-worst defense.
LA Sparks at Minnesota Lynx
(An Early Buy Notice)
Los Angeles plays tonight, on Wednesday.
LA is playing again on Thursday night.
You know what that means.
WNBA teams when playing Game Two of B2B’s, Ov/Un:
2024: 18-12, 60%
2025: 17-6, 73%
2026: 9-1, 90% (one game needed OT)
Combined: 42-19, 69%.
As I’ve been saying all year, if you’ve been riding this trend and have some units banked, keep playing it.
If you haven’t been profiting from it proceed with caution – nothing stays at 90% for too long, Reversion Toward the Mean will come into play at some point in time.
I’ve been riding it all year, in fact I’ve been sharing it here at PredictEm and riding it for years now so I’m on it again tonight.
I’m writing this on Wednesday morning and hoping tonight’s game stays Under because the W % for the Over in Game Two ticks up slightly if Game One stays Under.
When Game One of B2B’s is an Under, the Ov/Un record for Game Two the last two seasons is 17-11, 60%.
This season it was 4-1, (I need to update my chart for the last five games that qualified.)
Another tip – I don’t have my charts with me, I’m on the road, but I know that the majority of Game Two opening totals go higher so I’m buying this one early.
(I see from an previous article of mine that four of the first five spots that qualified went up by anywhere from 2 to 5 points.)
One other note of caution and that 9-1-1 record, guess who the only team that lost in this spot is – yup, LA.
They played on 5/29 and 5/30, and Game Two stayed Under by 3′ points. But if you’re looking at the Over tonight you can almost dismiss that lone loss on the 9-1 record because the Sparks played the Connecticut Sun, who are not only in last place but have the worst offense in the league, averaging just 79 PPG.
Also helping the case for the Over tonight is the fact that LA has the worst defense in the league, giving up 94 PPG.
And it goes up to 95.5 PPG when they’re on the Rd like tonight.
And, more good news – LA plays at the fastest pace in the league so you get more shots taken by both teams, which hopefully turn into more points on the scoreboard.
Also in favor of the Over:
LA is 9-4 Ov/Un on the Rd.
Min is 12-4 Ov/Un at Hm.
The books are aware of that of course and it will be reflected in the line.
H2H these two have met twice this season.
The first meeting, on 6/17, landed on 182.
The second meeting, July 15, landed on 183.
Minnesota has put up 100 points or higher in six of the last 10 games, and four of the last five Hm games.
As long as they play their normal game and don’t come in as slackers, taking the lowly Sparks lightly, they should put up triple digits again Thursday night.
Because the Sparks are playing tonight there are no early lines out yet. But as noted above I’m jumping on the opening number when it comes out.
I’ll post an update in the Forum as soon as I can.
My play:
LA at Min Ov
Recap: 0-1
Record: 23-21
Review:
I had Indiana +5′.
I was looking good at the end of the game but then Indiana had two turnovers that cost me as they lost by 8.
And Be Sure to Check the PredictEm Forum for Updates!!!
I snuck in a prop bet Monday afternoon.
Kelsey Plum was playing in her first game as a member of the Phoenix Mercury. Yes, she’s coming off an injury and would be seeing reduced minutes of play but the books hung a ridiculous 1′ on her three pointers made.
I jumped on the Over at my book, then posted it.
Midway in Q1 she gets into the game and hits her first three pointer.
Then she hits her next one in Q2 and is off to a 2-0 night, banking me an easy winner.
She ended up hitting three of five, more than double the numbers the book put on her!
