RBD lays the points with the Golden State Valkyries on the road in Washington in tonight’s WNBA matchup, backed by a Monday angle, a season sweep last year, and a defense-vs-offense mismatch.
Golden State Valkyries at Washington Mystics
A Pick on the Spread
They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. But that’s exactly what I’m going to do.
My WNBA season has not been working out very well but I’m going to stick with what I’ve been doing, using my own, unique handicapping models. Why? Simple – because it’s always worked for me in the past. And I expect things will turn around before the season is done.
Having said that, I’m NOT using one of my models today.
I’m going with a play handicapped the same way most bettors use, my gut feel. With, hopefully, a little Monday magic mixed in.
WNBA teams do not play a lot of Monday games. The league would never admit it but the reason is because in the entirety of their existence they’ve always struggled with attendance problems. Basically, nobody cares, especially pre-Caitlin Clark. And Mondays, a day most people don’t like and choose not to go out on, is the toughest day of the week to sell tickets. So it’s a day they’re not used to playing on.
Washington has played just two Mondays this season. They’re 0-2 SU. They lost one by 23 points in the other by 2 points.
Golden State has also played only two Monday games. They’re 2-0. Both victories came by 20 points or more.
GS is just 4-4 on the Rd this season, but all their losses have come to quality teams.
The Mystics are not a quality team.
They’re 4-4 SU at Hm this season, struggling at one game over .500.
And they’ll be level at .500 after tonight’s game against the Valkyries.
Golden State is currently sitting in third place in the standings, only one game behind both Minnesota and Las Vegas. They’re doing it with defense – they’re the only team in the league holding opponents to under an average of 80 PPG.
Washington sits near the bottom of the league in offense, with only Seattle and Connecticut scoring fewer PPG.
The Valkyries swept the Mystics last season, winning all four games SU. They also covered all four games against the spread.
The Valkyries are a better team this year than they were last year. Washington is worse.
The beatings will continue.
The game opened at GS -4′ and most books are currently sitting at -5′. I see one or two at -6 now so I’m buying this while 5′ is still the common number.
My play:
GS -5′
Recap: 0-1
Record: 12-17
Review:
After getting the deficit back down to just two games, I’ve dropped a couple in a row now, and I’m sitting at a season’s worst five games below .500.
I also dropped my first prop play of the season, given out in the PredictEm Forum.
I hope to have at least one more posted there for tonight’s games.
And I hope to have better results.
