Oleksandr Usyk (23-0, 14 KOs) vs. Daniel Dubois (22-1, 21 KOs)
When: Saturday, July 19, 2025
Where: Wembley Stadium, London, England
TV: DAZN
Weight Class: World Heavyweight Championship: 12 Rounds
Betting Odds: Oleksandr Usyk (-350), Daniel Dubois (+275)—Odds by Bovada
World Heavyweight Champion Oleksandr Usyk will defend his belts in a rematch with British KO artist and titleholder Daniel Dubois on July 19 in Wembley Stadium. This is a rematch of a controversial August 2023 title bout in Poland, where Usyk stopped Dubois in the ninth round. Now, two years later, these two will renew their rivalry with all the marbles on the line once again. Can Usyk repeat his victory over Dubois or will the British slugger provide a surprise?
Fight Analysis
Much of Dubois’ hopes are based on the hope he provided in their first fight, when a fifth-round marginal body shot folded up Usyk badly. Dubois and his camp and supporters are not crazy to think that the shot shouldn’t have been ruled low. To pretend to know what would happen if the blow were ruled to be legal isn’t helpful, but it offers hope for Dubois against a fighter who has really been impressive in taking over the heavyweight division. And it’s not just the fact that he hurt Usyk in their first fight. He’s also still only 27, 11 years younger than the champion and a robust physical specimen at 6’5.” He had a nice amateur background and appears to be improving. Getting this one in home territory could also provide a nice boost.
While it was Usyk who earned most of the attention with his two wins over Tyson Fury since last fighting Dubois, the rising Dubois stayed on-point, scoring a nice trio of wins over Jarrell Miller, Filip Hrgovic, and then a big one over countryman Anthony Joshua. His career trajectory is pretty strong. He started off fast, took some setbacks, and is still young and improving—a very dangerous and peaking fighter who represents a real danger to anyone—including a preeminent champion like Usyk.
A pro-Dubois stance, capitalizing on an underdog price being the motive, is understandable. I’d be a little cautious, however, upon which basis I build my optimism. I feel the body-shot foible from their first fight has generally been overstated by either Usyk naysayers or Dubois apologists who really can’t prove the blow was, in fact, legal or that Usyk wouldn’t have recovered if he had seen it was ruled a knockdown. And if that sequence offers so much promise, the flip side of that coin must also be acknowledged. Usyk has beaten a nice handful of top talent since coming up from the cruiserweight division. Him stopping Dubois in the ninth round 2 years ago is his only stoppage win over a quality heavyweight.
Again, when a fighter is an underdog facing an unbeaten champion who has cleaned out the division as Usyk has, the metrics are a bit different. Rather than needing to build the most sensible case that the fighter will win, you’re really just looking for an avenue to victory for the underdog fighter that surpasses the odds. So in that sense, maybe what happened in their first fight is enough to take a whirl on Dubois. What I saw was literally one moment, albeit a compelling one, with a lot of domination by the champion surrounding that. Dubois otherwise was having a difficult time catching Usyk, while the champion performed his normal clinical and technical dissection.
Dubois has been stopped late in both of his losses. It would be an incomplete appraisal to assess him as a front-running KO artist who falls apart when his power doesn’t win the day. While that’s in fact what occurred in his two losses, he has actually shown himself to be quite resolute at times, with some later-round stoppages in his current three-fight win streak. But at the absolute top reaches of the sport, which this is, it’s fair to question his stamina and championship-rounds willpower after he lost to Usyk last time after taking a knee twice.
Still, there’s something that makes you not want to discount Dubois. Usyk is getting up there now at 38. Heavyweight history tells us that’s an age when you should start hedging your bets. He had a high-level amateur career and was thrown into the world title waters very early. Two fights with Fury, two fights with Joshua, one with the hulking Dubois, all those cruiserweight title fights—it’s a lot of wear for a smaller heavyweight. Who would be a better candidate out of the two to have improved since their first encounter?
Dubois is an imperfect X-factor, the exact kind of guy you can’t disregard. Offensively, he can do a lot of things, even if the other aspects of his game aren’t as refined. Those other aspects might not leap off the screen, but they decide fights. It is in those areas where Usyk thrives—a technically superior and innate fighter with an advanced understanding of ring geometry and tactics. Dubois looks to burst through all that with power. And it doesn’t hurt that he’s bigger, younger, and operating with the confidence that he can hurt Usyk. Throw in the added confidence brought by his last three wins, and there are certainly worse underdogs to pick.
In the end, if I were to project that the success Dubois briefly had in their first fight was something he could be on substantively, I’d want better than +275 for my efforts. The tactical, technical, and superiority of fight IQ that Usyk showed in the first fight ended up swallowing Dubois up and will threaten to do so again. I can see an angle where maybe Dubois is a little better and Usyk has some more wear and tear after 24 rounds with Fury, but I still see this as a little too tough of a hill to climb for Dubois. I’m going with Oleksandr Usyk.
My Prediction to Win the Fight:
I’m betting on Oleksandr Usyk at -350 betting odds. Other than for one marginal punch, Usyk handled Dubois pretty well in their first fight. While Dubois could build on his success and be emboldened from it, the combination of skills Usyk brings into the ring will still provide a rough night for Dubois.
