Chicago at Minnesota
WNBA Prediction, 7PM, EST
More conflicting plays to mess with my mind today.
The Minnesota Lynx are playing in game 2 of the B2B spot.
The records on these are:
7-1 ATS, 4-1 at Hm, 3-0 on the Rd.
The Over on this spot is 5-3, Hm 2-2, 3-1 Rd.
Looks like a good spot for the Lynx and/or the Over today, right?
But then there’s this – Minnesota is a Double Digit Favorite today, laying 14′ to Chicago.
DD Favs are:
16-21 ATS, 12-12 at Hm, 4-9 Rd.
The Over in these spots is 17-21 all games,
8-17 Hm, 9-4 Rd.
So, ATS I’ve got Minnesota in a 4-1 spot (B2B at Hm) and a 12-12 spot (DD Hm Fav.)
And for the Over I have a 2-2 spot (B2B) and an 8-17 spot (DD Fav.)
Those are all league-based stats, encompassing all teams.
As always, let’s look for something more team specific to help me in making a decision.
First, the B2B spot.
This is the first time the Lynx have been in this situation this season.
Last season, Minnesota was in the B2B spot twice (that’s a correction, I had this at three games in yesterday’s article) and both games went Over.
In the DD Fav spot Minnesota is 6-3 ATS this season, all games, and 5-2 at Hm.
On the Over they’re 4-5 overall, 3-4 at Hm.
Digging deeper . . .
Minnesota’s B2B is the HH subcategory (their second game is at Hm following a Hm game the previous night.)
Last year ALL teams playing at Hm in the second game after playing at Hm the night before were 4-1 on the Over.
They’re 1-2 this year, with a chance to even it up tonight.
But here’s the subcategory I like the best.
As I’ve pointed out before, certain days of the week have a different feel to them. WNBA teams play the majority of their games on weeknights. Sundays have a different feel to them, and when game 2 of a B2B is a Sunday game the Over was 8-3 last season.
The Sunday record this season is 1-1, but the loss came at the beginning of the year in a game with the Connecticut Sun. The books hadn’t had time to adjust for just how bad the Sun are (they’re currently in last place with a record of 2-15, and have the lowest PPG in the WNBA at just 71.)
This year on Sundays, three of four Chicago games have gone Over the total the books put on today’s game and Minnesota is the same, three of four have gone Over.
Chicago has had a full week off, their last game was last Sunday. This season, on three days rest or more, Chicago is 2-1 to the Over.
I think I’ve seen enough to make a call now.
The Lynx have screwed me twice this week.
First came their pitiful effort in the Commissioner’s Cup game, where they put up a pitiful 59 points and lost straight up as Double Digit Favs.
But I’m the forgiving type, so I gave them another chance yesterday against the Valkyries.
I had Over 155.
The game landed on 153 as both teams fell short of their expected team totals by just enough to hang a loss on me by a basket.
I’m giving the Lynx another chance tonight with a play on the Over.
“Once bitten, twice shy” the old saying goes.
I’ve been bitten twice now and I’m still not shying away from going back to using Minnesota in an Over again.
Hopefully, after the game, I’ll be thinking of a different old adage, “Third time, lucky.”
And not “Once bitten, twice shy. Thrice bitten and you’re just an idiot.”
My play:
Chi/Min Ov 160
Recap: 0-1
Record: 11-13
Review:
I had GS/Min Ov 155.
In Q3 GS scored 24.
In Q3 Min scored 28.
Going into Q4 I only needed 26 points combined from both teams to win my bet.
One team scored 24 in the third quarter.
The other scored 28.
I only need 26 COMBINED in Q4.
Money in the bank, right?
E-A-S-Y winner, right?
WRONG!!!
In Q4 GS scored 11.
In Q4 Min scored 13.
And much cursing was heard emanating from my domain.
