WNBA Total Play
Let’s talk about WNBA teams playing in Gm 2 of B2B’s (the second game on days where they’re played back-to-back).
As I’ve noted before, these were extremely profitable last year at 17-6, 73% on the Over.
Anything above 54% gains you a profit.
Anything above 58% is, as I always say, worth putting my money on.
Anything above 60% is terrific.
And 67% and higher is what I refer to as the Holy Grail.
So 73% is beyond excellent, and very difficult to achieve over the course of an entire season for any stat, any sport.
This year the Over on Gm 2 of B2B’s started out slow at 0-2. Then they made a comeback, winning five straight to go to 5-2. I thought it might be profitable again this year, but then the Under ran off three straight wins to even it up at 5-5.
It seemed the play had no value anymore and was unusable.
But last night’s Over on the Liberty game put the spot on a run of five straight Overs.
The record is now 10-5, 67% – The Grail.
It’s starting to look like last season again, making it a no-brainer – play it every time.
Last night the Washington Mystics played at home against the Seattle Storm, putting them in the B2B’ spot today.
Now let’s look at some subcategories for teams in the B2B spot.
When the team’s first game was an Under, the record for the Over in game two is 7-3, 70%.
The total on Washington’s game last night was 158. They combined for 127, an Under.
When both of the B2B team’s games were at Hm, no travel involved, the record on the Over is just 2-3, so we don’t have that angle working for us in today’s spot.
For team specific stat in this play, this is Washington’s first time in the B2B.
Recent play:
Phoenix has gone Over today’s total in just one of their last five games and five of their last 10.
Washington has only gone Over today’s number two of their last five, and four of their last 10.
Phoenix averages 80.3 PPG on the road.
Washington averages just 79.4 PPG at home.
Some of the standard stats say take this one Under, but I’ll play the B2B spot that puts this one as an Over.
Also of note for anyone thinking of playing one of the two sides in this game, teams in Gm 2 of B2B’s are 10-5 ATS.
When they’re playing at Hm (either Hm/Hm or Rd/Hm), the record is 4-3; when it’s Hm/Hm, it’s 2-3.
When they’re the Dog, the record is 5-2 ATS.
The Mystics are +7′ today.
When to Buy Recommendation:
This game opened at 165′.
It was down to 163 when I started writing this.
I just checked again and it’s at 161′.
Tip off is still a few hours away, and it’s moving in the direction I want, so I’m going to wait a little longer to buy this one, see if that hook comes off.
Be sure to check the PredictEm forum, I’ll have at least one prop play up there a little later today. Been on a roll with props there, 7-1 in the month of July (which I may have just jinxed by mentioning it. Idiot!)
Recap: 2-1
Record: 20-19
Review: I bought three plays in my last article.
I hit with Minnesota (-10, they won by 31) and Over 161′ (went Over by 25′).
Lost due to a bad beat on the Whitcomb prop, Over 1′ three point shots made, got killed with about 30 cents worth of extra juice, too.
When handicapping prop bets, you’re looking for how many minutes she will play, what her averages are, and what the situation is she’s in in today’s game, how she matches up against the defense she’s facing. I wrote that Whitcomb would take at least six three-point shots, and I only needed two of them.
She averages 36% on three-point shots.
She took EIGHT three pointers in the game.
She only hit one.
I capped it correctly, but she vastly underperformed.
Yeah, bad beat.
