The Denver Broncos (0-0) travel to Levi’s Stadium to face the San Francisco 49ers (0-0) in this week’s NFL Preseason clash. While wins and losses may not count for much in August, this matchup offers critical insights into depth charts, coaching strategies, and player momentum. With Bo Nix expected to get meaningful reps and 49ers’ defense still finding its footing under returning coordinator Robert Saleh, several betting angles are worth exploring here.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Broncos +3 (-110) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Troy Franklin Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110) ★★★★★
- Value Play: First Half Over 17.5 Points (-115) ★★★☆☆
Broncos vs 49ers Betting Odds & Line Movement
| Market | Denver Broncos | San Francisco 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +145 | -170 |
| Point Spread | +3 (-110) | -3 (-110) |
| Total | Over 36.5 (-110) | Under 36.5 (-110) |
Opening Line: 49ers -2.5, Total 35.5
Sharp Money Breakdown: Where the Smart Bets Are Going
When this line opened at 49ers -2.5, I anticipated movement — and we got it. The adjustment to a full field goal reflects early action on San Francisco, especially after reports out of camp highlighted their offensive line improvements and depth at skill positions. The total also ticked up slightly, indicating expectations for sharper offensive execution or defensive lapses. Preseason totals rarely move without cause, so smart money is clearly leaning in that direction. With the Broncos now getting a full field goal, sharp bettors may look to buy back on Denver, especially considering Sean Payton’s history of solid preseason preparation.
Quarterback Matchup: Bo Nix vs Mac Jones – Who Has the Edge?
Denver Broncos: Bo Nix
- Coming off impressive rookie campaign that led Denver to playoffs
- Expected to play the entire first quarter
- Working behind improved offensive line and showing better command in camp
- Completing 68% of passes in team drills with improved deep ball accuracy
San Francisco 49ers: Mac Jones
- Expected to start with Purdy likely sitting out
- Has shown inconsistency in camp with multiple interceptions
- Working with second and third-team receivers due to injuries
- Limited familiarity with Kyle Shanahan’s complex system
QB Edge: Broncos (when both first-team units are on field)
Defense Comparison: Which Unit Will Step Up?
Denver’s defense has been the story of training camp, with Zach Allen looking dominant after his massive contract extension and rookie Jahdae Barron making splash plays regularly. The Broncos also added former 49ers stars Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga this offseason, giving them inside knowledge of San Francisco’s systems. The 49ers defense is undergoing a transition back to Robert Saleh’s scheme after last season’s disappointing performance. While they have star power with Fred Warner and Nick Bosa, their secondary remains a question mark, especially with depth corners expected to play most of this game. First-round pick Mykel Williams will make his NFL debut for San Francisco, but Denver’s defensive cohesion and carryover from last season gives them an early advantage.
Key Betting Trends & Team Stats You Should Know
- Sean Payton’s teams have covered the spread in 7 of his last 9 preseason openers
- 49ers have gone under the total in 5 of their last 7 preseason home games
- Denver went 3-0 SU and ATS in preseason last year, averaging 26 points per game
- San Francisco’s defense allowed 24+ points in 3 of 4 preseason games in 2024
- The Broncos are 11-4 ATS as preseason underdogs since 2018
- Bo Nix led scoring drives in 4 of his 5 preseason possessions as a rookie
Troy Franklin: Rookie With Something to Prove Against Hometown Team
Oregon product Troy Franklin grew up in the Bay Area and returns home looking to cement his position as Denver’s potential WR2. He’s been a standout in camp, consistently making plays downfield and developing chemistry with both Nix and backup Jarrett Stidham. Franklin’s speed has been troublesome for Denver’s secondary in practice, and he should see extensive playing time as coaches evaluate his game readiness. With Courtland Sutton likely playing limited snaps, Franklin has a prime opportunity to showcase his talent against a 49ers secondary that’s still finding its footing. Watch for designed shots to Franklin early in the game.
Levi’s Stadium Factor: What to Expect on Game Day
Levi’s Stadium typically features mild conditions for evening games, with temperatures expected in the mid-60s at kickoff. The playing surface has been improved after past criticism, but still tends to favor speed over power. While the crowd will be sparse as is typical for preseason, there’s added intrigue with Denver’s ex-49ers (Greenlaw, Hufanga, Mike McGlinchey, D.J. Jones) returning to face their former team. This familiarity could create interesting storylines and matchups, particularly when San Francisco’s offense faces Denver’s defense. The Broncos coaching staff will be particularly motivated to show well against a perennial NFC contender.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Broncos vs 49ers
Primary Play: Broncos +3 (-110)
Denver has all the ingredients for a strong preseason opener. Sean Payton historically prepares his teams well for exhibition games, and the Broncos have legitimate competition throughout their depth chart that should fuel competitive play deep into the second half. Payton will give Bo Nix meaningful snaps to build on last year’s momentum, while backups Jarrett Stidham and Sam Ehlinger provide capable quarterback play throughout. The 49ers, meanwhile, are working through injuries at key positions and implementing Saleh’s defensive system, which could lead to coverage busts and communication errors. Take the field goal with the more stable situation.
Strong Value Play: First Half Over 17.5 Points (-115)
The first half should feature the most offensive talent on both sides, with Nix expected to play at least a quarter and the 49ers likely giving Mac Jones extended work. Denver’s offense looked polished in camp, and San Francisco’s defensive overhaul could lead to early mistakes. Both teams also have questions in their secondary that skilled quarterbacks can exploit. With coaches typically keeping things vanilla defensively in preseason openers, expect both offenses to move the ball consistently. The 17.5 number is attainable with just two touchdowns and a field goal.
Worth Considering: Under 36.5 Total Points (-110)
While the first half could see solid offensive production, preseason games often slow down considerably in the second half as third and fourth-stringers take over. Both teams have defensive-minded head coaches in their systems, and the later portions of the game typically feature conservative play-calling and clock-burning possessions. The under has hit in 5 of San Francisco’s last 7 preseason home games, and Robert Saleh will want to make a positive defensive impression in his return. If you’re playing the full-game total, lean under despite the first-half offensive potential.
Top Player Props for Broncos vs 49ers
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Franklin (DEN) | Over 39.5 Receiving Yards | -110 | ★★★★★ |
| RJ Harvey (DEN) | Over 28.5 Rushing Yards | -115 | ★★★★☆ |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | Over 0.5 Passing TDs | -140 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Ricky Pearsall (SF) | Over 34.5 Receiving Yards | -110 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Mykel Williams (SF) | Over 0.5 Sacks | +175 | ★★★★☆ |
Final Thoughts: Quarterback Advantage Tips Scales for Visitors
Preseason outcomes often hinge on quarterback depth and coaching preparation – two areas where Denver appears to have the edge. Sean Payton has consistently fielded competitive preseason teams, and the Broncos’ quarterback room (Nix, Stidham, Ehlinger) provides solid play throughout all four quarters. The 49ers are implementing a new defensive system, managing multiple injuries, and working with less quarterback stability after last year’s disappointing campaign. Denver’s returning players facing their former team adds extra motivation, particularly for defensive players familiar with San Francisco’s offensive concepts.
Score Prediction: Broncos 20, 49ers 17
Note: Our projections about who’s playing in preseason are based on the latest updates from beat reporters, coaches, and players. Sometimes, that info changes at the last minute or doesn’t pan out on game day. If you can’t personally confirm who’s suiting up, we recommend keeping your action light—think “beer money” bets only.
Be sure to bookmark our main free picks page every week, where professional handicappers Kevin West and Rich Crew will be giving out winning picks!
