New York Liberty at Las Vegas Aces
Free plays – Total and Prop
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A “No Brainer” play means you don’t have to use your brain.
No thoughts involved, no stat work needed, it’s automatic – you just play it.
Unfortunately, I ignored the “Play all Gm 2’s of B2B’s Over – it’s a no-brainer” rule and I used my brain on Sunday’s Sea/LA game – and bought the Under.
And my brain turned out to be as effective as the one Marty Feldman brought back to Gene Wilder in Young Frankenstein.
The game went Over.
I am Wile E. Coyote, Suuuuper genius.
I am an IDIOT.
If I had a blackboard, I’d write “Play all Gm 2’s of B2B’s Over!” on it 100 times.
The math and the odds were simple.
The play was 17-6 last year, 73%.
It was 14-7 this year, 67%.
There were only nine games left that qualify for the play this season. Odds are it was going to go 5-4 at worst case, so all I had to do was play every one of them and I’d lock up a profit.
And I screwed up.
The Sea/LA game puts the record for the Over in Gm2 of B2B’s at 15-7, 68%.
With eight games left.
The first of those eight games was Monday night. Determined not to miss out again I bought it Over. Then, late in the day, it was announced that Tina Charles, Connecticut’s leading scorer, was out.
So I bought off the game.
It stayed under by TWENTY-FOUR points.
I had a bad move on the Sea/LA game, but followed it up with a good move by getting off the Con/GS game.
The record for the play is now 15-8, 65%.
This is well above the 58% mark I look for when making a bet.
Which brings us to tonight’s spot.
New York played Tuesday night, and they’re playing again on Wednesday.
Which means they’re in Gm2 of B2B’s.
Which means . . . No Brainer!
Let’s look at some stats for both teams.
NO!
Let’s not.
That’s what I did on Sunday night’s game, and I talked myself off the play.
And it sailed over by 13 points.
So short and sweet, here it is, my play:
NY/LV Over 170′
(Okay, I did a little stat checking.
Both of New York’s B2B games are on the road, so I checked to see what happens on the total in the second game in this situation.
The record is 5-2 Over, so as Spackler would say, “I got that going for me.”)
And as long as I’m going to be watching the game, how about a little prop action?
I bought NaLyssa Smith Over 5′ rebounds.
It’s pricey at -135 (current price at a couple of our sponsors), but I’ve seen it as high as -175, so it’s a bargain at -135.
The 5′ is her average rebounds per game on the season, but lately she’s seen increased minutes, and in her last three games, she snagged 6, 9, and 12.
It’s a good matchup for her, the Liberty are ranked near the bottom of the league at giving up rebounds to Smith’s position, and the fact that NY played last night and will have tired legs in the second half should help Smith beat them to the ball and pick up a couple of extra rebounds.
Check the forum later, I’m adding one more prop play there.
Season Accounting
With college football and the NFL starting up, I won’t be able to spend as much time looking for WNBA games to play. I’ll still cap them each morning to keep my database updated, and if I see something strong, I’ll buy it and post it, but for me, the WNBA season is about to end.
So it’s time to do some accounting.
In my articles, it’s been a one step forward, one step backwards year. I’m sitting at .500, with a record of 25-25. That puts me down about two and a half units.
In the forum, I’m 21-17, which puts me up about 2.3 units there.
I’ve had some losses where I laid extra juice on props, but it’s offset by the fact that I very rarely lay 110, usually getting a few cents better on the juice when playing sides and totals.
Combined, articles and forum, I’m down about a half a unit. With a full season of systems data and stats to work with, I should be able to finish with some kind of profit in my 2025 Battle with the Books for the WNBA.
Time will tell . . .
