New York Liberty at Minnesota Lynx
Free WNBA Picks Team Total and Prop Bets
There’s only one game on the WNBA schedule today. Normally I’d take the day off since it doesn’t offer a lot of choice for bettors but this is an interesting matchup and should be a good game to watch so I gotta have action on it (for those reading this right now and feel the need to correct me because “gotta” isn’t really a word, I know. Thank you, Mr. Grammar Cop.)
And as long as I’m looking to have some fun, what the hell, you only live once, let’s make it a three-pack for Saturday.
First up, I’m taking Minnesota’s team total Over 82.
At Hm Minnesota averages 87 PPG while New York surrenders 81 on the Rd.
Some handicappers may think it’s wise to lay off Minnesota at this point of the season. They already have home court locked up throughout the playoffs.
Some ‘cappers may think the Lynx might slack off over these final two weeks. But this team is as close to professional athletes as she’ll find in this league.
And they have a little extra incentive today – they don’t like New York. The Liberty knocked them out of the playoffs last season. Minnesota has beaten New York twice already this season, but that won’t lessen their desire for continued revenge today.
Head to Head, these two have played twice this season. The Lynx put up 83 on the Rd and 100 at Hm. Those numbers make the case for an Over today.
For recent play, Liberty has given up 83, 97, 83, 77, and 76 in their last five games.
Three of five are Over what I need today
In their last five Rd games they’ve given up 83, 97, 77, 78 and 78. Three of those five games saw them give up fewer points than I need today but they were against two of the worst teams in the league, Dallas and Connecticut, both who rank at the bottom in scoring.
Minnesota has scored 82 or more in four of their last five and eight of their last 10.
In their last five at home, they’ve put up 80, 100, 86, 109, and 91. Four of five games are Over what I need today.
The number is tight, but I’m taking the Over.
For a little prop action, I’m turning to McBride and Carrington.
How happy is Dijonai Carrington about her trade from cellar dweller Dallas, with no chance at making the playoffs, to the best team in the league?
She’s responded with 13, 12, and 15 points in her first three games.
With Napheesa Collier still out with injuries, Carrington will get plenty of minutes today.
The books put her at 10′ points with only slightly higher than standard juice at -114.
Count me in.
For prop number two I’m going to take McBride for three pointers, Ov 2′. She’s made three or more in three of her last five games and six of her last 10.
But here’s what sold me on the Over 2′ – she hits 39.6 percent of her three-pointers, and in two games against New York this season, she’s put up 16!
So we have an average of eight 3-point shots taken per game, and she’s hitting at 39.6%.
Those numbers say she’ll make at least three today. But that doesn’t factor in her competition.
In those two games with New York, where she’s averaging eight 3-point shots taken per game, she’s hit nine of them – that’s 56%, 15 points higher than her average.
It’s a good matchup for her.
Plays:
Min Ov 82′, -120
Carrington Ov 10′, -114
McBride Ov 2′ three pt shots made, -136
Recap: 1-0
Record: 26-26
Review: Sometimes you handicap the game correctly but still don’t cash your ticket.
I had two strong handicapping systems that said take the GS/Chi game Over 159.
Chi put up 24 points in a first quarter that saw a total of 50 points scored, and I thought I was well on my way to an easy win.
But the Sky said, “Not so fast there, RBD, don’t underestimate the severity of our suckage.”
And they scored 19 points in the second half.
24 points in Q1.
19 in the entire second half.
And the game landed on 159 for a push.
Partly my fault though. After opening at 164 well I began to drop. I didn’t think it would get much lower, so I grabbed the 159.
It closed at 158/158′.
I’m usually pretty good at knowing when to buy, but I screwed the pooch on this one, and a game that I should have won by a point ends up a push.
Sometimes you handicap correctly, but…
