Minnesota Lynx at Indiana Fever
and
Golden State Valkyries at Phoenix Mercury (?)
Let’s look at the “why’s” and “why nots” to take the GS/Phx game Over the posted total.
The Why’s:
1 – It qualifies as a play for my H/C (Hot/Cold) Trend reversal model.
This play is 5-1 on Overs this season.
That’s an 83% W rate.
2 – Phoenix is playing in Gm2 of B2B’s.
This play is 15-9 to the Over this season.
That’s a 62% W rate.
3 – Phoenix has been in Gm2 of B2B’s once already this season. The total was 165, they scored 170, for an Over.
So I have two trends based on stats for the entire league (#1 and #2) and one team specific stat (#3.)
Any one of those is incentive enough for me to buy this spot, but with three different stats pointing to the Over the choice becomes easy.
Or does it?
The Why Nots:
1 – The Chi/NY game qualified for the H/C spot yesterday.
The total was 163.
They scored 176, it went over by 13 points.
But I didn’t play it!
Which puts me in that spot I hate – jumping on a play the day after I didn’t use it, and it won.
2 – Yes, Phx is in Gm2 of B2B’s, a 62% play.
But they’re at home. Hm teams in Gm2 of B2B’s are 7-5. My W percent drops from 62% to 58%.
Still, 58% is the bar that I use to decide on buying a play or not.
But . . .
3 – Yes, Phx is 1-0 in the B2B spot but last time was a Rd game, they’re at Hm tonight.
Different feeling, different atmosphere.
4 – Gm2 of B2B’s have stayed Under in three of their last five, and two straight.
5 – GS games Ov/Un are 13-22. That’s just 37%!
Phoenix isn’t much better at 16-17.
6 – The Valkyries live or die by the three-point shot. When they’re hitting them, the total could go over by 30 points, like in their last game.
But when their shooting is off, the game could stay under by more than 20 points, like a recent game against Seattle.
So what am I going to do, buy it or not?
Depends on the Minnesota Lynx.
The Lynx are also in GM2 of B2B’s.
And they’re on the Rd, the subcategory with an 8-4, 67% record.
Minnesota is 9-8 to the Over on Rd games, Indiana is 9-9 at Hm.
I like those stats a little bit more than the ones on GS/Phx.
And after getting beat last night in Atlanta the Lynx have lost two in a row for the first time this season, so I’m expecting a top notch effort from them tonight.
And there’s this – Indiana beat Minnesota in the Commissioner’s Cup Championship game earlier this season.
The Fever not only beat the Lynx, they embarrassed them. They held Minnesota to a season low 59 points, including an embarrassing 7-point Q2.
And it’s not like Indiana plays a stifling defense, they’re right near the bottom of the league at PPG given up. Minnesota just had an awful game, shooting just 34% from the field and 25% from 3-point range.
So there’s a little revenge mixed in for the Lynx tonight.
And they can’t possibly shoot any worse, right?
Luckily there’s a time differential between the two tip-offs.
The Lynx game starts at 7:30 EST, the Mercury tip-off two and a half hours later at 9:00.
I’m buying the Minnesota game Over.
If it goes Over I’m banking the unit, no play on GS/Phx.
If the Minnesota game comes in Under, I’ll buy the later game and hope to get back to 1-1 on the night.
I’ll try and get an update into the PredictEm forum with the number I get if I buy it.
Min/Indiana Ov 165
Ledger & Notes
- Recap: 0–1 last article (Minnesota as dog at New York).
- Forum play the same night (GS game) won and offset the loss.
- Records: Articles 27–30; Forum 23–18 → Combined 50–48.
- With juice, sitting about –3 units entering the final regular-season slate.
