Hindsight and Forecast
A look at the week in review and a look at what’s coming this week.
Looking back:
There are two kinds of 2-3 records.
The bad kind is when you start your weekend 2-0 and then lose your final three games.
This past weekend, I had the good kind. I started out 0-3 and won my last two games to finish at 2-3.
Yes, I dropped a unit, but at 0-3 I was facing a much uglier possibility.
But the Asterisk Play saved me.
The NP Under went 0-2 on Saturday and neither game was close.
The Asterisk Play split on Saturday, then gave me a big winner with San Fran over Seattle on Sunday to finish 2-1.
For the season, the NP Under is underperforming at 2-2.
That Asterisk Spot is 2-1.
Regular Season Wins updates:
I made two bets this season.
Here’s how I’m looking.
Mississippi Over 8′
In my article and analysis on this pick, I identified two games that were key to getting the Over.
The first was at Kentucky.
The Rebels came away with a 30-23 road win and are now 2-0.
I need seven more wins to bank my bet and they still have four of the five teams that I identified as easy wins left on the schedule, having already dispensed with Georgia State.
That means I only need one more win from their other six games to bank this one.
I’m liking my position here.
NYG Under 5′
The Giants lost to Washington.
As expected.
They look terrible, unable to score a touchdown, managing just two field goals.
Russell Wilson had a QB rating of 25.5.
That is NOT a typo. His rating was 25.5!
The ground game was just as bad as their quarterback play, 74 yards total.
My only concern is that Wilson looked so bad that they may go with Jaxson Dart sooner than planned. Dart was the number three quarterback going into the preseason but he outplayed Winston to move into the number two spot. Dart looked good, but remember – it was the preseason. He saw a lot of time facing 2nd and 3rd stringers and guys who were not going to make the team. In a regular season game, he’ll see first-stringers and he’ll quickly discover that the game pace is a lot quicker than it was in college.
With 16 games left on the schedule, NY will have to go 6-10 to beat me.
I don’t think so.
Looking ahead:
No games qualify for NP Under spots this week but I do have two Asterisk plays.
One is in college (a 9-20, 69% Fade last season, 1-1 so far this year) and one in the NFL (a 3-11, 78% Fade last season, 0-1 this year.)
Check back later this week for picks and analysis on those games.
