Game Information Dashboard
Date: Sunday, September 14, 2025
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
Odds: San Francisco 49ers -3 (-110) | Total: 40.5
The Rundown
The betting market has reacted decisively to Brock Purdy’s injury, moving this line from an opening 49ers -7.5 down to the current -3. Mac Jones steps into the starting role for San Francisco after Purdy was ruled out with a toe injury that could sideline him 2-5 weeks. This quarterback change fundamentally alters the offensive equation for a 49ers team that managed 17 points and 384 total yards in their Week 1 win over Seattle. Meanwhile, New Orleans struggled in their home opener, scoring just 13 points on 315 total yards in a loss to Arizona. The total has settled at 40.5, reflecting market concerns about offensive production with backup quarterbacks taking center stage.
Why New Orleans Has Value
The Saints get a significant boost playing at home in the Superdome, where they’ve historically performed well against San Francisco. In the last 10 meetings between these teams, New Orleans has averaged 27.0 points per game compared to San Francisco’s 25.0. The Saints are 6-3 straight up in their last 9 home games against the 49ers, though they’ve struggled against the spread at 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home meetings.
New Orleans also gets defensive coordinator Brandon Staley in his first game calling plays. Staley previously led the 2020 Rams defense that ranked first in the NFL in total defense, points allowed, and passing defense. While the Saints allowed 276 yards per game in Week 1, they forced key turnovers and showed signs of improvement under new leadership.
The Numbers That Matter
Week 1 Team Stats:
- Points: 49ers 17, Saints 13
- Total Yards: 49ers 384, Saints 315
- Passing Yards: 49ers 265, Saints 208
- Rushing Yards: 49ers 119, Saints 107
- Yards Per Play: 49ers 5.3, Saints 4.6
- Time of Possession: 49ers 37:58, Saints 26:14
The 49ers controlled the clock and moved the ball more efficiently in Week 1, but much of that came with Purdy under center. Mac Jones brings different skills to the table – in his last full season as a starter with Jacksonville in 2024, he threw for 1,672 yards with 8 TDs and 8 INTs over 7 starts. His ball security and decision-making will be crucial against a Saints defense that recorded two takeaways in Week 1.
Market Analysis & Recent Form
The 4-point line movement represents one of the most significant quarterback-related adjustments we’ve seen. San Francisco is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games, suggesting recent struggles away from home. The Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games but have shown better home performance historically against this opponent.
The Under has been trending for both teams – hitting in 6 of New Orleans’ last 7 games and going Under in the 49ers’ lone game this season. Both teams averaged well below their season scoring projections in Week 1, and the quarterback change only adds to Under considerations.
Head-to-Head Context
Last 10 Meetings (2014-2022):
- Series tied 5-5 straight up
- 49ers 6-3-1 ATS advantage
- Average scores: Saints 27.0, 49ers 25.0
- Over/Under: 6-4 favoring Over
- Saints 6-3 SU at home in last 9 meetings
The teams haven’t met since November 2022, when San Francisco won 13-0 in a defensive struggle that went Under a 43.5 total. That game saw the 49ers manage just 260 total yards while holding New Orleans to 260 yards as well.
Key Injury Impact
Beyond Purdy’s absence, the 49ers are also without George Kittle (hamstring, IR), removing another key weapon from Mac Jones’ arsenal. Kittle averaged 4 receptions and 25 yards in Week 1 before getting injured. His replacement, Jake Tonges, caught the game-winning touchdown against Seattle but represents a significant downgrade in receiving threat.
The Saints are relatively healthy but lost safety Julian Blackmon to a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 1. However, they should have most of their key defensive pieces available.
The Bottom Line & Prediction
The market adjustment appears appropriate given the quarterback change, but getting 3 points with a home underdog in a divisional-style rivalry creates value. While San Francisco maintains talent advantages, Mac Jones under center in a hostile road environment presents legitimate concerns. New Orleans showed fight against Arizona and should benefit from familiarity with their new systems in Week 2.
The Saints’ home field advantage, combined with questions about Jones’ road performance, makes this number attractive. Both teams’ recent Under trends and the quarterback situation point toward a lower-scoring affair.
Prediction
Saints 16, 49ers 14
Best Bets
- ⭐⭐⭐ Saints +3 (-110) – Home underdog value with backup QB concerns for San Francisco
- ⭐⭐ Under 40.5 (-105) – Both teams trending Under, backup QB situation favors defense
- ⭐ Saints Moneyline (+150) – Solid value for potential outright upset at home
Game Flow Projection: Expect a defensive struggle with field goals playing a major role. Saints’ ability to control the game tempo at home gives them the edge in a low-scoring affair that could be decided by a field goal.
