Hindsight and Forecast
and . . .
BYU at East Carolina Free Pick
A look at the week in review, a look at what’s coming this weekend, and my first college football buy of the week.
Looking Back
It was a slow week for football picks.
I only had two as I wait to gather data that will hopefully allow me to increase my action.
I went 1-1.
The two plays were both Asterisk Plays, one in college, one in the pros.
I got a win with the college play as Louisiana Tech easily handled New Mexico State.
In the pros, I had a two-point win at the end of regulation time with Denver at Indianapolis.
So how did I end up going 1-1 instead of 2-0?
The Colts missed a game-winning field goal as time ran out, but a rare “leverage” penalty was called on the Broncos. An untimed down was added because of the penalty, and on their second chance, the Colts hit their game-winning field goal, and I lost my bet.
Some people are calling it a bad beat, but not me; it’s just the nature of the sports betting beast.
It did suck, though.
The Asterisk Fade spot is now 1-2 in college, 1-1 in the pros.
This week’s off to a good start in football as I hit my Forum Play prop on Monday night, with Quentin Johnson Over 41′ receiving yards.
It took only one play to get the W as he caught a 60-yard TD pass.
Be Sure to check the PredictEm Forum for Additional Plays!
Looking Ahead:
At the beginning of the college football season, I said the success (or not) of my year would be determined by the NP Under spot because I was going to play every one of them.
But for the second week in a row, no games qualify.
In 4 weeks of play, I’ve only had four games to bet. Looks like the success of my season will be determined elsewhere as I have to seek other avenues and handicapping models to rely on.
And I won’t get much help from my other favorite spot, as there are no Asterisk Plays this week either.
Regular Season Wins update:
It was another good week for both of my bets.
The Mississippi Rebels beat Arkansas to go to 3-0 on the season. I only need six more wins to get over 8′, with at least three more patsies left on the schedule.
This week they’re a two TD Fav at Hm against Tulane.
The New York Giants kept it close and were actually winning in the final minutes, but Dak put the Cowboys back on top, and Russell Wilson threw a floater for an interception to end the game.
New York is now 0-2 as I try and keep them Under 5′ wins.
Wilson was a big reason why I took the Under, and he has performed as expected. But the fans are already calling for him to be benched in favor of Jaxson Dart. If Wilson loses again this week, to a hungry and angry 0-2 Kansas City, we might see Dart in week four.
My Play for Saturday
For my first football pick of the week, I’m taking the East Carolina Pirates.
I only have three weeks of data on the records for the different handicapping models I use, but I have a game that fits two different spots, and I’m going to buy it.
Before I get to the play here’s a breakdown on the two models I use to identify Wrong Favorites.
WF1 is 6-3, Hm 3-1, Rd 3-2.
WF2 is 17-14, Hm 3-2, Rd 14-12.
This week, WF1 says East Carolina (2-1) should be the Favorite over BYU (2-0). The Pirates are at Hm, where WF1 has a 3-1 record. Like I said, not a lot of games charted yet, but one way to Beat the Books is to identify and jump on a streak early, BEFORE it’s already established and starts to go back the other way. That’s what I’m going to try with this 3-1 spot.
Plus, it fits a subcategory that’s 1-0.
These two teams have met only three times, the first being in 2017. East Carolina won two of three SU, and lost the third by just a TD (even more reason to regret not getting the +7′ this one opened at.)
When To Buy Recommendation
Unfortunately, I missed out on the opening number.
Even worse – it was a key number at +7′.
Right now, the WAN (Widely Available Number) is +6′ and the juice is pretty flat, no extra added to either side at most houses.
I doubt it’ll move in my favor, but I’ll wait to buy it.
Worst case, if it starts to drop, and I don’t move quickly enough to get the +6′, I’ll lose the hook and get a +6.
As always, I’ll try to post the final number I buy in the PredictEm forum before kickoff.
(I’ll also have at least one pick on a college total posted there.)
College record: 6-5
Next article – my pick for the Panthers at the Falcons on Sunday.
Good luck with your plays this weekend!
