Battle Report 9/15 to 9/21
No ground gained or lost in my Battle with the Books last week as my football picks came in at 4-4.
College Clashes
If you told me at the beginning of the week I was going to bet six games and come out 4-2 I would say, “Great! I’ll take that every time.”
But it was a disappointing 4-2.
How so?
I won a rare weekday play on Friday night and followed up with three winners in the early games on Saturday.
I was sitting at 4-0 (including three Double Digit Dogs that won SU) with two games left on the card, including my strongest play with Washington State.
The Cougars, +21, were right where I needed to be going into the 4th quarter, only down 7.
The Huskies would have to score more than two unanswered TD’s to beat me and they hadn’t done that in any of the previous quarters.
Wash won Q1 by a score of 14-0, tied Q2 at 10-10 and lost the third quarter 7-14. So I really liked my position heading into Q4. But then came a pick six. Then another turnover.
And the Cougars lost by 28.
So, 4-2.
I’ll take it, especially since it could have been worse.
I had two more play circled and noted in the forum as possible plays, an NP Under (but with an FCS team) and a play that fit the same model as the Double Digit Dogs I won with.
I stayed off them though and both plays lost.
Why did I stay off them?
Because I applied the most valuable lesson I learned while running a sportsbook, one I’ve shared before and will do so again now for new readers:
As a bookmaker, I HAVE to put up a line on every game. That is MY disadvantage.
As a bettor, you DON’T have to bet every game.
That is YOUR advantage.
And the more games you bet the more you reduce the odds on my disadvantage.
With a 4-0 day in my pocket and only two games left I knew the worst I could do was 4-2, and so I didn’t play the other two spots.
And they both lost.
NFL Encounters
Has Atlanta scored yet?
I took one of the best running games in the league against one of the worst rushing defenses in the league, and . . . got shut out.
Making matters worse, I lost with my Robinson rushing yards prop because the game was so far out of reach Atlanta pulled all their starters at the beginning of the 4th quarter, leaving me just 10 yards short.
And I go 0-2 for the day.
Regular Season Wins update:
Another perfect weekend for Mississippi Over 8′ and the New York Giants Under 5′.
The Rebels won, the Giants lost.
The New York crowds booed Russell Wilson and cheered when Jaxon Dart came in for a couple plays.
At 0-3 it won’t be long before the Giant’s Brain Trust gives into the screaming fans and yank Wilson and put in Dart. But I doubt it’ll be this week, not with Harbaugh and the undefeated Chargers defense coming to town.
Next up for #13 Mississippi (4-0) is a tough one as #4 LSU (4-0) comes to town. I had this one marked as a toss-up/lean Mississippi in my analysis article dated 8/15.
The Rebs are favored, but only by 1′
It’s a battle of two undefeated teams, nationally televised on ABC at 3:30 EST.
And it’s number one on my must-see TV list for games to watch this weekend.
WNBA update:
I went 1-2 and both losses were brutal.
In an elimination game at home, Atlanta blew a 5-0 lead, getting outscored 7-0 in the fourth quarter.
On Sunday I won with Minnesota but lost with the Indiana/LV game Over.
I got a great number by buying it early at 162′ when it closed at 165′.
I only needed 39 points in Q4 for the win, coming off of Q3 of 47 points scored.
They scored 38, the game land that I won 62, and I lost by a hook.
This Week’s Plan of Attack
I survived last week at 4-4 with no plays qualifying for either of my strongest spots, the NP Under and the Asterisk Play.
I hope to get at least one or two in either or both of those handicapping models this weekend.
But if not, I’ll go to plan B, using one of my systems for picking Wrong Favorites for NFL games.
Here’s the week by week record of WF2:
2-2
1-6
1-2
That’s a combined 4-10 for a 60% Fade.
And I have SIX of them to choose from this week.
Maybe it should be plan A instead of Plan B?
I’ll be digging deeper into the numbers over the next two or three days, seeing if there are any other factors I like to help me choose which of those six games to use.
Check back midweek for my next article with a couple picks in it.
In the meantime, keep punching and keep up the good fight!
RBD
