Colts vs Rams Preview: Week 4 Undefeated Test
Opening Setup
Here’s what’s interesting about Sunday’s matchup—the Indianapolis Colts are riding the most surprising 3-0 start in the NFL, while the Los Angeles Rams are coming off one of the most crushing defeats you’ll see all season. After blowing a 19-point lead to Philadelphia in Week 3, the Rams are desperate to prove that collapse was an anomaly, not a pattern.
For new bettors, this is exactly the type of game where emotions and narratives can cloud your judgment. The “bet against the team coming off a bad loss” angle sounds smart, but sometimes the best teams respond with their most focused performances. We’re about to find out which version of both teams shows up at SoFi Stadium.
The storyline here is simple: Daniel Jones and the Colts haven’t faced a defense this talented yet, while Matthew Stafford and the Rams can’t afford another home stumble. This feels like the game that separates the real contenders from the early-season surprises.
Game Details Box
Date: Sunday, September 28
Time: 8:06 PM ET
Location: SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
TV: FOX
Current Betting Lines
| Bet Type | Line | Juice |
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Rams -3 | -120 |
| Total Points | Over/Under 49.5 | -115/-105 |
| Moneyline | Rams -175 / Colts +150 | – |
Quick Translation: The Rams need to win by 4+ points to cover the spread. The total expects 50 points combined. A $175 bet on LA wins $100, while $100 on Indy wins $150 if they pull the upset.
Line Movement Analysis
The crazy part is how this line has moved. The Rams opened as 6.5-point favorites, but sharp money has been hammering the Colts all week, driving the spread down to just 3 points. This is classic “reverse line movement”—when the line moves toward the team getting less public action. It usually means the smart money knows something the casual bettors don’t. The moneyline has also tightened significantly, suggesting professional bettors see real value in Indianapolis as an underdog.
Check today’s board and see our NFL predictions.
Key Matchups
The battle in the trenches will decide everything. The Rams’ defensive line featuring Jared Verse and Byron Young has been generating pressure at an elite level, but Indianapolis has allowed just 4 sacks in 3 games—tied for the fewest in the NFL. Daniel Jones has been excellent under pressure this season with a 108.2 passer rating when pressured.
On the flip side, watch Puka Nacua against Indianapolis’ slot coverage. The Colts are allowing 8.4 yards per target to slot receivers this season, and Nacua has been Stafford’s security blanket with 11 targets per game when healthy. If Kenny Moore II can’t go for Indy, that matchup becomes even more lopsided.
Why Smart Bettors Like Colts
- Perfect ATS Record — Indianapolis is 3-0 against the spread, showing they’re consistently exceeding expectations.
- Turnover Margin — The Colts haven’t lost a fumble yet and Jones has just 1 interception in 3 games.
- Rushing Attack — Jonathan Taylor is hitting his stride with 3 TDs last week, and the Rams allow 4.8 yards per carry.
Betting Recommendations
Primary Bet: Colts +3 (-100) — Let’s be realistic about what we’re seeing here. The Colts have been the most fundamentally sound team through three weeks, while the Rams just had a complete mental breakdown against Philadelphia. Shane Steichen has this Indianapolis team playing mistake-free football, and getting three points with the better coaching staff feels like a gift.
Secondary Consideration: The Under 49.5 has some appeal if you think both defenses step up in a primetime setting. This total feels inflated based on offensive numbers rather than what these defenses can actually do.
What to Watch For
- Live betting opportunities if the Rams jump out early—public will overreact
- Kenny Moore II’s status for Indianapolis’ slot coverage
- How quickly the Rams abandon their running game if they fall behind
- Daniel Jones’ pocket presence against his toughest pass rush yet
Bottom Line Summary
The market is telling us something important when a 3-0 team keeps getting better betting value each week. Indianapolis has earned respect with their execution, while Los Angeles showed concerning mental fragility in crunch time. The sharp money movement toward the Colts suggests this spread doesn’t properly reflect the gap between these teams.
Final Score Prediction: Colts 24, Rams 21.
