Cincinnati Bengals vs Denver Broncos – Week 4 NFL Picks
Game Information
Date: Monday, September 29, 2025
Time: 8:15 PM ET
Venue: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado
Odds: Denver Broncos -7.5 | Total: 44
The Rundown
Denver comes in as a touchdown-plus favorite, and the numbers tell you why. The line opened -6.5 and now sits -7.5, with sharps backing the home side. While Cincinnati actually shows better offensive efficiency at 11.42 yards per point compared to Denver’s 13.32, this advantage is negated by their defensive struggles and overall team execution issues. The Bengals are averaging just 220 total yards a game, including a league-worst 49 rushing yards. More concerning, they’ve been held to fewer than 200 total yards twice this season, while Denver has faced far superior competition to this point. Jake Browning leads the league in turnovers with five, while Denver’s defense is tied for the sack lead with 12. The Broncos haven’t been flawless, but the math leans heavily their way.
Why Denver Has the Edge
The Bengals’ offensive line has allowed pressure on 42% of dropbacks, now facing a Denver pass rush generating heat on 38% of opponent snaps. That’s a recipe for trouble. Denver’s defensive superiority shows clearly in the numbers – they’re allowing just 21.3 points per game compared to Cincinnati’s porous defense giving up 30.3 points per game. Add in a three-and-out rate difference (Denver 22%, Cincinnati 31%) and it’s easy to see which team sustains drives and which one doesn’t.
The Numbers That Matter
- Points Per Drive: Denver 2.1 vs Cincinnati 1.8
- Yards Per Play: Denver 5.2 vs Cincinnati 4.0
- Drive Success Rate: Denver 71% vs Cincinnati 64%
- Defensive Points Allowed: Denver 21.3 vs Cincinnati 30.3
- Three-and-Out Rate: Denver 22% vs Cincinnati 31%
Denver’s efficiency advantages aren’t subtle — they stack across every phase. From early downs to defensive execution, the Broncos check every box. Cincinnati’s inability to run the ball (2.4 yards per carry) puts everything on Browning’s shoulders, and that hasn’t worked yet.
Market Analysis
The move through the key number to -7.5 reflects Cincinnati’s 48-10 disaster in Week 3. Handle favors Denver despite balanced ticket count, signaling sharp money siding with the home favorite. The total holds at 44, with both public and professionals leaning under. Burrow’s absence removes any chance of offensive balance, while Denver’s metrics point toward steady, grind-it-out production at altitude.
Head-to-Head Efficiency Matchups
| Metric | Cincinnati | Denver | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Drive | 1.8 | 2.1 | Denver |
| Success Rate | 38% | 43% | Denver |
| Explosive Play Rate | 8% | 12% | Denver |
| Drive Success Rate | 64% | 71% | Denver |
| Three-and-Out Rate | 31% | 22% | Denver |
| Defensive Points Allowed | 30.3 | 21.3 | Denver |
| Turnover Rate | 1 per 8.2 | 1 per 12.4 | Denver |
The Bottom Line
The matchup tilts Denver’s way everywhere you look. The Bengals’ offensive line is a liability, their ground game is non-existent, and Browning is turnover-prone. Denver’s defense is built to exploit all of it. The Broncos don’t need fireworks here — just steady drives and their usual defensive pressure. If they avoid giving the ball away, they should cover by double digits. The total leans under, but Denver’s side is the cleaner play.
Prediction
Denver Broncos 24, Cincinnati Bengals 13
Best Bets
- Denver -7.5 (-110) — Efficiency mismatch points to two-score win
- Under 44 (-110) — Cincinnati can’t generate enough offense
- Denver Team Total Over 21.5 — Short fields and defensive edge
Game Flow Projection: Denver’s pass rush sets the tone early, forcing mistakes from Browning. Broncos control field position and grind out long possessions. Bengals’ lack of balance leads to stalled drives, and Denver pulls away in the second half.
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