Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, September 28th
After a one-week hiatus in which no games qualified, I have THREE Asterisk Spots to play this week.
Two in college, one in the NFL.
This handicapping model was a very profitable 3-11 Fade last season in the NFL, 3-10 at Hm, and 0-1 on the Rd. That’s a rock-solid 78%!
In the kid’s game it was 9-20, a 69% Fade.
This year it’s 0-1 in college (a Rd game) and 1-1 in the pros (both Hm games), for a combined 1-2, a 67% Fade, right in line with last year’s numbers.
I’m playing all three of them.
Check back in for the college picks.
Here’s my take on the NFL spot.
In my weekly recap article, I mentioned that I have some good numbers on one of my models (WF2) for predicting where the books have made the Wrong team the Favorite in the NFL.
WF2 is 4-10, a 60% Fade.
It’s 4-9 on Hm teams and 0-1 on Rd teams.
And SIX games qualify this week.
I didn’t give out any picks in that article because I said I wanted to dig a little deeper to see if I have any other stats or trends that would help me choose which of those six games to buy.
And I found exactly what I was looking for.
WF2 says Baltimore is the Wrong Favorite.
Their opponent, Kansas City, is at home.
WF2 is 4-9 on Hm teams, a 69% Fade.
AND . . . it also qualifies as an Asterisk Spot.
With TWO different models telling me to take the Ravens, this is my number one pick of the week.
No, this does not mean I bet more on it than my other plays; I am a BIG proponent of not altering the size of your wager.
When you see touts raving about 10-star plays! And 20-star plays!! And 50-star plays!!! You know you’re looking at clown car material.
The size of my standard betting unit differs from sport to sport but within a sport I maintain the same size unit.
Last year in college and pros, I only bet more than my standard unit on one game, Oklahoma in week 1 (and yes, it won.)
DON’T VARY YOUR BET SIZE!
It’s difficult enough to stay over 54%, but when you alter your dollar amounts, it makes it even more difficult.
“Thus endeth the lesson.”
Back to ‘capping.
Let’s dig deeper into Baltimore at KC.
Both teams have gotten off to an ugly start on the season, underperforming at 1-2 SU and 1-2 ATS.
The Ravens’ two losses came to two good teams in Buffalo and Detroit, but in those games they surrendered 38 and 41 points – what happened to Baltimore’s vaunted defense??!!
Their lone win came against 1-2 Cleveland.
Like I said, ugly.
The Chiefs are just as hideous.
They lost to two good teams, San Diego and Detroit, clearly struggling on offense in both games.
Their lone win came against the 0-3 New York Giants. New York was in the game at halftime, but luckily for the Chiefs, Russell Wilson turned into Russell Wilson in the second half and threw a couple of picks.
Based on past performance and quality of opponents, I’ll give Baltimore the slight edge here.
But is it enough of an edge to back the Ravens as a Rd Fav, against KC in the rare spot of being a Hm Dog?
I had to go back 3 years, to the ’22/’23 season, to find a spot where the Chiefs were getting points at home in a regular season game.
They were +2 facing Buffalo and lost 24-20.
But that was a Chiefs team in their prime, hitting on all cylinders.
This year’s version is nowhere near the talent level and especially the confidence level that the ’22/’23 team had.
KC is sputtering and struggling to find its rhythm, especially on offense.
Their PF/PA differential is barely above water at +4. Baltimore is at +15.
The Chiefs have the edge on defense, and Baltimore has the edge on offense.
So which side of the ball will control the game on Sunday?
In their last three meetings, the Chiefs hold the edge over the Ravens at 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS, but those were better KC teams.
It seems like every season, sportscasters (and many bettors) claim that this will be the season Lamar Jackson gets over the hump and wins the big games that get him to the Super Bowl.
And each season, he falls short of expectations.
Here he is, once again in one of those key games.
Baltimore lost to Detroit, then came back with a win in their next game.
Last week, they blew the lead late in the game and lost to Buffalo when Josh Allen put up 16 points in the final four minutes.
16 points.
Final four minutes.
Patrick Mahomes in 2025 is not Josh Allen.
If Baltimore gets ahead I don’t expect to see Mahomes to look like Josh Allen and bring the Chiefs back. There’s a better chance that he’ll look like Russell Wilson.
My gut tells me that Baltimore again follows a loss with a win.
My eyes tell me we’re witnessing the end of the KC dynasty.
And my stats – from both WF2 and the Asterisk Play – tell me Baltimore is the right way to go this week.
When to Buy Recommendation:
Right now, this game is at Baltimore -2′ all across the board. The price is readily available at -107 at many houses, but a few others have started to add juice to the Ravens.
I bought this one today at -2′, -107.
Recap: 0-1
Record: 1-2
Review: Has Atlanta scored yet?
