Cowboys vs Jets Preview: Week 5 Divisional Crossover
Opening Setup
Here’s what we’ve got brewing at MetLife Stadium this Sunday — two teams desperate to turn their seasons around, though for very different reasons. The Cowboys are sitting at 1-2-1 after that wild 40-40 tie with Green Bay, while the Jets are still searching for their first win at 0-4. For newer bettors, this is exactly the type of game where public perception can create value — everyone sees Dallas as the “better” team, but the numbers tell a more complex story.
The fascinating angle here is how both defenses have been absolute sieves. Dallas has surrendered the second-most points in the NFL (132), while the Jets aren’t far behind at 120 points allowed. When you see totals this low with defenses this bad, it’s time to pay attention. The market seems to be factoring in offensive struggles rather than defensive failures, which could be backwards thinking.
Game Details Box
Date: Sunday, October 5
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford
TV: FOX
Current Betting Lines
| Bet Type | Line | Juice |
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Cowboys -3 | -110 |
| Total Points | Over/Under 47 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Cowboys -150 / Jets +130 | – |
Quick Translation: Dallas needs to win by 4+ points to cover the spread. The total means you’re betting whether both teams combine for more or less than 47 points. The moneyline shows Dallas as a moderate favorite — bet $150 to win $100 on Cowboys, or $100 to win $130 on Jets straight up.
Line Movement Analysis
The line opened with Dallas favored by 3 points and has held steady, which tells us the market is split on this one. When you see no movement on a line like this, it usually means sharp money and public money are flowing to opposite sides, creating equilibrium. The total at 47 is particularly interesting — that’s historically low for two teams that have been in shootouts all season. This screams “reverse line movement” where the market is fading the obvious high-scoring narrative, but sometimes the obvious play is the right play.
Key Matchups
The critical battle is Dak Prescott versus the Jets’ pass defense. Here’s what jumps out: Prescott leads the NFL with 1,119 passing yards through four games, but he’s been Jekyll and Hyde on the road — 188 and 251 yards in away games versus 361 and 319 at home. The Jets have actually been decent against the pass, allowing just 198 yards per game through the air after that Week 1 disaster against Pittsburgh.
The other matchup to watch is both teams’ red zone efficiency. Dallas has been explosive in short spurts but inconsistent in finishing drives, while the Jets have managed 21+ points in three of four games despite the winless record. The defenses are the real story — Dallas has allowed 30+ points in three straight games and the Jets have allowed 30 PPG this season.
Why Smart Bettors Like Dallas
- Road Favorite Value — Cowboys are getting respect but not overwhelming public backing at -3.
- Offensive Ceiling — 40 points in two of four games shows explosive potential when clicking.
- Jets Desperation Fade — 0-4 teams often press and make critical mistakes in close games.
Betting Recommendations
Primary Bet: Over 47 Points — This total is disrespectfully low for two teams that have combined to allow 252 points in eight games. Both offenses have shown they can move the ball, and these defenses have been consistently terrible. The market is overthinking this one.
Secondary Consideration: Look at the Jets +3 if you want to get contrarian. Home underdogs getting a field goal in divisional crossover games have historically been profitable, especially when the favorite has road struggles like Dallas.
What to Watch For
- Live betting opportunities if the game starts slow — this total could move dramatically
- CeeDee Lamb ruled out for Dallas creates receiving depth questions
- Weather conditions at MetLife — any wind affects the passing games significantly
- Jets quarterback situation — Justin Fields has been serviceable but turnover-prone
Bottom Line Summary
The market is treating this like a defensive struggle when both teams have proven incapable of stopping anyone consistently. Dallas has the better offense and more talent, but the Jets are desperate at home and getting enough points to keep it interesting. The real value is on the total — 47 points feels like Vegas is begging you to take the under based on preseason expectations rather than current reality.
Final Score Prediction: Cowboys 28, Jets 24.
