Denver Broncos at New York Jets – NFL Week 6 International Series
Market Analysis Opening
The London stage features two teams trending in opposite directions. Denver opened as a 7-point favorite, with the line edging to -7.5 despite balanced public tickets — an indicator of professional money confirming the Broncos’ edge. Meanwhile, the total has dropped from 47.5 to 43, signaling sharp expectation of a low-scoring, defense-driven game. Denver’s defensive metrics support that narrative, and the Jets’ red-zone inefficiency compounds it.
| Game Information | |
|---|---|
| Matchup | Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets |
| Date | Sunday, October 12, 2025 – 9:30 AM ET |
| Venue | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (London) |
| TV | NFL Network |
| Point Spread | Denver –7 (–120) / New York +7 (–100) |
| Moneyline | Denver –400 / New York +300 |
| Total | 43 (O –115 / U –105) |
| Weather | Mid-50s °F, overcast, light wind — minimal impact |
Sharp Money Breakdown
Professional action has aligned on Denver and the under. Despite 58% of spread tickets favoring the Broncos, 72% of the handle sits their way — larger wagers from sharper bettors. The total tells the same story: 61% of tickets on the over but a 55% handle on the under, confirming sharp preference for a slow-paced, ground-heavy contest. Steam moves on both the full-game under and Denver’s team-total under confirm institutional conviction.
Coaching & Strategic Factors
Sean Payton’s structured approach suits the London environment. His offenses average 31 minutes of possession this season, built on 43.9% rush rate and 37.3% third-down efficiency. Robert Saleh’s Jets, by contrast, rank 34.4% on third down and 61.5% in red-zone TD rate. Saleh’s group has settled for field goals in key drives — a pattern that magnifies against Denver’s 28.6% defensive red-zone TD allowance, second-best league-wide.
Advanced Efficiency Breakdown
- Points per Game: DEN 23.4 | NYJ 22.4
- Yards per Play: DEN 5.5 | NYJ 5.3
- Third-Down Conversion %: DEN 37.3 | NYJ 34.4
- Red-Zone TD % (Off): DEN 66.7 | NYJ 61.5
- Red-Zone TD % (Def): DEN 28.6 | NYJ 60.0
- Opp Points per Play: DEN 0.28 | NYJ 0.52
- Opp Yards per Play: DEN 4.8 | NYJ 5.7
- QB Sack Rate (Offense): DEN 2.8% | NYJ 9.5%
- Takeaways per Game: DEN 0.8 | NYJ 0.0
Denver’s defense ranks top-five by most situational metrics: 16.8 points allowed per game, 4.8 yards per play, and 30.3% third-down stops. The Jets, by comparison, give up 31.4 points and 5.7 yards per play while forcing almost no turnovers. The differential in red-zone and third-down performance supports the Broncos’ profile as a road favorite even across the Atlantic.
Player Impact
J.K. Dobbins continues to anchor Denver’s run game at 5.0 yards per carry with 66.7% red-zone TD efficiency. Against a Jets defense surrendering 4.5 yards per rush, Dobbins projects for 18–20 touches and strong anytime-TD value (–135 range). Rookie Bo Nix remains turnover-averse (2.3% INT rate) and should exploit manageable third-and-short situations. New York’s Garrett Wilson faces a Denver secondary allowing only 6.6 yards per pass and 58% opponent completion — a difficult matchup.
Venue & Travel Notes
Tottenham’s surface favors balanced teams and consistent rush footing. Denver arrived in London early in the week to adjust to time zone and humidity, while the Jets traveled late Thursday. The Broncos’ West-Coast training rhythm and Payton’s discipline give them a slight preparation edge for the 9:30 AM ET kick.
Bryan Bash’s Multi-Angle Card
Primary Play: Denver Broncos –7 (–120) | 3% unit
Model edge = Denver by 9.1 points on neutral field. Defensive and situational metrics support the favorite in a slow-tempo game script.
Secondary Play: Under 43 (–105) | 2% unit
Both teams rank bottom-10 in offensive pace. London games average 12% fewer plays than domestic games, and these two defenses combine to allow only 4.8 and 5.7 yards per play. Projected total: 38–40 points.
Props:
– J.K. Dobbins Anytime TD (–135)
– Bo Nix Under Passing Yards (≤ 210.5)
– Garrett Wilson Under Receiving Yards (≤ 64.5)
Final Projection
Predicted Score: Broncos 24, Jets 14
