Weekly Recap
It was a good week for me and anyone who ventured forth with me and my picks in their own personal Battle with the Books. We banked a profit in both college and pro football.
College Review
The week started off with a Tuesday night loss when Middle Tennessee State not only failed to cover the 10 point spread but they only scored SIX points at home, and lost SU.
I got the unit back on Wednesday night with UTEP Over 47 when they combined with Sam H. for 52 points.
Saturday play did not start well at all.
Some absolutely pathetic, vanilla, repetitive play calling from Duke’s head coach saw them fail to get into the end zone on a first and goal from the one, a momentum swing that saw Georgia Tech go on to an easy win.
ALWAYS examine your losses and see if there’s anything you can learn from them to use in the future. And here’s what I took away from this game – Duke head coach Manny Diaz is 0-5 all-time vs top 20 teams.
Let’s keep that in mind when the Blue Devils face #17 Virginia three weeks from now.
My other morning game was Army Over and the game stayed Under by three points.
I started the day 0-2 and was more than a little surprised. As I mentioned in my article with the poker chips in the picture, everything in life was going well, my biorhythms were cooking, I was in the “flow,” I was hot.
With that and some solids picks on my dance card I thought I was in for a good weekend. And though the day started at 0-2 I was right, because I followed up those two morning losses by banging out five straight winners.
Marshall Over 66 came in at 77.
Akron Over 44 came in it 70.
Wyoming Under 57 saw only 45 points scored.
Arizona State Under 52 saw 48 points scored.
That was it for my college play, but I hit my NFL pick on Sunday for the fifth straight W.
The spot I leaned on for the weekend was T1 Overs. It was 9-4 going into Saturday, when I had nine games to choose from.
As explained in my college football article, I matched the T1 spots with my other model for choosing totals, T2, and eliminated four games because T2 had a record of 0-4 on Overs.
Of the four games I eliminated only one went Over, proving the value of having multiple handicapping models to work with.
The games you eliminate from your play are just as important as the ones you bet.
Be smart, be selective, especially in college where you have so many games to look at.
NFL Review
I had one play, based on two stats:
1 – My WF1 model had a record of 3-7 (a 70% Fade) when it was an AFC team facing an NFC team, and this week it said the Jags should be favored over the Rams.
2 – The NFC was 22-12 ATS (64%) vs the AFC this season.
The Rams were -3.
The Rams won 35-7.
BTW, there were two other NFC vs AFC matchups on Sunday. Like the Rams, the Panthers and Giants also covered ATS.
NFC versus AFC is now 25-12 ATS on the season.
That’s 67%.
That’s the Grail I seek.
NEXT!
Regular Season Wins Update
Mississippi took a loss against Georgia. They had the lead in the fourth quarter and blew it. But it wasn’t unexpected, I had that one marked as a loss when I handicapped it.
The Giants lost again, putting me one game closer to winning the Un 5′ games bet.
But it took THIRTY-THREE fourth quarter points from Denver to get me the W.
The Giants inserted Jaxson Dart at QB earlier in the season than I expected, and it’s going to cause me some difficulties before this one’s decided.
Updates on Plays with Stupid Names
Asterisk Plays
The college record was 2-5 going into the week. It went 2-0. Luckily I only Faded one of them. It’s 4-5 now, still profitable but heading in the wrong direction.
The NFL record was 3-1 so I stayed off the Fade.
It went 0-2, with the Jets and the Dolphins.
It’s now 3-3, worth playing again?
NP Plays
Seven games qualified.
Overs went 0-3 and are now 3-9 on the season, a solid Fade.
Unders were 3-1. They’re now 6-5, profitable once again.
Note on the Texas State/Marshall game.
It qualified as a T1 Over and an NP Under.
Because T1 Overs had a better record I played the game Over. The line was 66 and only went Over because of 23 points scored in OT.
I don’t handicap for OT, my models are based on four quarters of play.
It counts as a win on my record, but in my database it’s charted as a loss for T1 Overs and a win for NP Unders.
NBA Preview
Tuesday night, NBA action begins.
In the past, I waited until football season was over before I started handicapping it, preferring to concentrate on one sport rather than dividing my time and focus. But that meant that when I started NBA play after the Superbowl I had no stats gathered to use moving forward. So I’ll start handicapping it from day one, and if I see anything I like I’ll jump in with some plays.
