Vikings vs Chargers – Week 8 NFL Pick
Game Information
Date: Thursday, October 23, 2025 – 8:15 PM ET
Venue: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Odds: Chargers -3 | Total: 44.5
The Read
Thursday night brings two flawed teams trying to prove they’re still relevant. The Chargers opened -2.5 and moved to the key number of three, which tells you where the early sharp money went. Both squads are coming off losses — L.A. gave up 38 to the Colts, Minnesota fell short against Philadelphia — but the matchup looks tighter than the line suggests.
Start with raw efficiency. Minnesota averages 24.2 points per game to the Chargers’ 21.6. The Vikings score more often per snap too — 0.411 points per play versus 0.331 for Los Angeles — which translates to a four- to six-point swing over a dozen drives. That’s real value catching a field goal.
What makes it tricky is how different these teams play. The Chargers run more plays (65 per game to 59) and control possession for over 32 minutes. Herbert’s offense sustains drives — 46% on third down — but doesn’t finish them. Minnesota’s attack is choppier, converting just 34% on third down but punching in touchdowns at a 52.4% red-zone rate. In a low-total game, finishing matters more than volume.
Matchup Breakdown
On paper, this feels like strength on strength. Herbert has been the steadier hand, but Minnesota’s defense has quietly been one of the better situational units in football — 30% allowed on third down and just 47% touchdowns in the red zone. That’s elite territory. They’ll bend between the 20s, then make you earn everything.
The Chargers have their own advantages. They create chunk plays at 5.7 yards per snap to Minnesota’s 5.4 and protect Herbert better (7.1% sack rate versus 10.9%). The run game tilts slightly toward Minnesota — 4.4 YPC vs 4.9 on offense, 4.2 vs 5.1 allowed — which should help them control tempo if they can stay on schedule.
Both teams are slightly negative in turnover margin (MIN -0.7, LAC -0.4), so the swing factor probably comes from field position and third-down defense. That’s where Minnesota’s metrics shine. If the Vikings can force one or two stalled drives and trade touchdowns for field goals, that’s enough to keep it tight into the fourth.
Trend Sheet
- Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last six against the Chargers.
- Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last five overall.
- The total has gone Under in four of the last five meetings.
- Vikings are 5-1 to the Over this season, but Chargers home games trend slightly Under (4 of last 6).
What It Comes Down To
The Chargers are the prettier box score team, but Minnesota’s efficiency under the hood is better where it counts — per play, per red-zone trip, per scoring chance. Los Angeles will move the ball; the question is whether they can finish. The Vikings’ defense has made a living forcing drives to die inside the 30.
This is the kind of Thursday matchup where patience and field goals decide it. The Chargers’ home field is worth something, but not three full points against a team this disciplined on defense. If Minnesota protects the football, they’ll be live deep into the fourth quarter.
Prediction
Chargers 23, Vikings 20
Best Bets
- ⭐⭐⭐ Vikings +3.5 (-115) — Efficiency travels. Minnesota’s better per snap, and their defense can hang with Herbert for four quarters.
- ⭐⭐ Under 44.5 (-105) — Two solid red-zone defenses, both playing slow. Points come at a premium.
Game Flow: Expect a slow start, both sides leaning on scripted drives. The Chargers build a lead but can’t pull away. Minnesota answers with long possessions that chew clock. It feels like a 23-20 type finish either way — and that makes every half-point valuable.
