Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans – Week 9 NFL Picks
Game Information Dashboard
Date: Sunday, November 2, 2025
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: NRG Stadium (Houston, TX)
Odds: Houston Texans -2 | Total: 40
The Rundown
On paper, this looks like a coin flip between two teams trending in opposite directions. Denver’s quietly stacked up five straight wins and sits inside the top ten in offensive efficiency. Houston, meanwhile, returns home after a headline-grabbing win over San Francisco that might’ve inflated their market rating. The line opened near pick’em and nudged toward the Texans at -2, which feels more like a reaction than a reflection of reality.
Dig into the numbers and you see why the Broncos have been cashing tickets. They’re generating a point every 52 yards of offense; Houston needs 61. That’s not a small gap — it’s the difference between finishing drives and settling for field goals. Both defenses have kept totals low all year, and the number sitting at 40 fits the profile of a methodical, grind-it-out type of game. Denver ranks eighth in offensive EPA per play; Houston’s middle of the pack at 16th. That efficiency gap hasn’t been priced in.
Why Denver Has the Edge
This matchup starts up front. Denver’s pass rush has been relentless — second in the league in sack rate at 11.2%, nearly double the league average. Houston’s protection hasn’t held up under heat, allowing pressure on roughly 35% of dropbacks. When C.J. Stroud gets hurried, his completion rate craters from 68% to 51%, and his yards per attempt drop from 7.8 to 4.9. Denver’s defense doesn’t need to blitz to get home, and that’s a big edge against a Texans offense that’s been one-dimensional of late.
Houston’s run game hasn’t offered much relief either, ranking just 20th in rushing EPA. That forces Stroud into predictable passing situations against a Denver defense that ranks fifth overall in EPA/play. In a game expected to hinge on field position and red zone execution, that defensive consistency travels well.
The Numbers That Matter
- Points Per Drive: Denver 2.2 (8th) | Houston 1.9 (16th)
- Yards Per Play: 5.8 vs 5.4
- Success Rate: 69% vs 65%
- Explosive Play Rate: 13.0% vs 11.2%
- Red Zone TD Rate: 62% vs 55%
- Time of Possession: 31:40 vs 29:05
Market Analysis & Line Movement
The early-week swing from Denver -1 to Houston -2 suggests initial respect for the home team, but that move feels more perception-driven than data-backed. Ticket count is leaning toward Houston, yet the money split remains almost even — always a sign that sharper bettors are on the other side. With Tank Dell limited and Nico Collins questionable, the Texans’ receiver room is thin, and that matters against a Denver defense that’s allowing just 5.4 yards per play.
The market still seems to be weighting Houston’s win over San Francisco heavily, but Denver’s efficiency metrics tell a more consistent story. The Broncos rank higher in points per drive, red zone touchdowns, and drive success rate — three of the most predictive categories for covering small spreads.
Check out our capper’s NFL betting picks against the spread. Always Free!
The Bottom Line & Prediction
This one has the feel of an old-school field position battle. Denver’s defense can control the line of scrimmage, Bo Nix has been sharp in scripted drives, and the Broncos’ steadier pace gives them more control over possession. Indoors at NRG, there’s no weather to disrupt rhythm — and Denver’s rhythm has been the more reliable of the two. Houston will make plays, but their inconsistency on third down (just 38% over their last three games) keeps them from pulling away.
Prediction
Denver Broncos 21, Houston Texans 17
Best Bets
- ⭐⭐⭐ Denver Broncos +2 (-110) — Superior efficiency, better situational football.
- ⭐⭐ Under 40 (-110) — Two top-10 defenses with red zone resistance.
- ⭐ Bo Nix Over 1.5 Passing TDs — Houston’s secondary remains banged up, opening red-zone windows.
