Bryan Bash breaks down why the Bulls’ home edge is overrated and why the sharp money’s already moving toward the Sixers. With Tyrese Maxey lighting up the league and Philly boasting the NBA’s top offense, the underdog label doesn’t fit.
The Setup: 76ers at Bulls
The books have this one at Bulls -1 to -2 depending where you shop, with a total sitting at 239.5. Let me tell you something right now—this line’s a joke. Both teams sitting at 5-1, but the market’s treating this like the Bulls are some dominant home force. They’re not.
Philadelphia’s rolling into Chicago averaging 125.7 points per game—the best offensive output in the entire league. Meanwhile, Chicago’s putting up 121.7 PPG, which is solid, but here’s the kicker: the Sixers are doing it while giving up just 118.2 points, and the Bulls are surrendering 116.3. The scoring margin favors Philly at +7.5 compared to Chicago’s +5.3, yet we’re getting points? Load up on this before the line shifts.
The market’s disrespecting the 76ers here, and I’m not buying what Vegas is selling. Yeah, Joel Embiid’s questionable with that knee management nonsense, but when was the last time that actually mattered? This team just dropped 129 on Brooklyn without him. Tyrese Maxey’s averaging 33.7 PPG through six games, and rookie VJ Edgecombe is chipping in 20.3 per night. This isn’t your grandpa’s process Sixers—this team can score with anybody.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date/Time: Tuesday, November 4, 2025, 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: United Center, Chicago, IL
- Spread: Bulls -1 to -2 (Bovada: Bulls -1, MyBookie: Bulls -1.5)
- Total: 239.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
- Moneyline: 76ers +100 to -105, Bulls -115 to -122
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Here’s what the sharp money knows: the public’s all over the Bulls because they see 5-1, perfect at home (4-0), and think this is some easy chalk play. Wrong. Dead wrong.
The Bulls are coming off their first loss of the season—a 128-116 beating at Madison Square Garden where the Knicks dropped 20 three-pointers on them. That vaunted 30.1% defensive three-point percentage? Just got exposed for 47.6% by New York. Josh Giddey had a triple-double and they still lost by 12. That’s not a team ready to handle the Sixers’ firepower.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia’s 3-0 on the road this season and just torched Brooklyn for 129 points shooting 52% from the field. Kelly Oubre Jr. went nuclear for 29, Maxey added 26, and Quentin Grimes dropped 22 off the pine. The books are begging you to take the Bulls at home, but this is exactly the spot where Chicago burns you.
Look at the efficiency numbers from both teams. Philly’s shooting 47.9% overall with a 40.6% clip from three (4th in the league). Chicago’s at 50% shooting but only 40.7% from deep, and that three-point defense just got torched. The Sixers attempt 38.2 threes per game—if Chicago can’t defend the arc against New York, what makes you think they’ll lock down Maxey and company?
76ers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
This Philadelphia team is built different this year. Tyrese Maxey isn’t just good—he’s playing at an MVP level. The kid’s leading the team in every meaningful category: 33.7 PPG, 9.0 APG, and he’s playing 42.4 minutes per night. That’s first in the league. He’s not getting tired; he’s getting better.
VJ Edgecombe, the third overall pick, is proving he’s NBA-ready right now with 20.3 PPG and 5.0 boards. Kelly Oubre Jr.’s putting up 19.5 PPG and grabbing 6.3 rebounds while shooting 52.6% from the field. Quentin Grimes is the X-factor off the bench—18.2 PPG with a scorching 45.2% from three.
The Sixers dominate the fourth quarter, outscoring opponents 35.5 to 24.7. They’re clutch when it matters. Even if Embiid sits again, this team proved against Brooklyn they can blow teams out without him. Philadelphia averages 27.3 assists per game with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.0. They move the ball, they share the rock, and they execute.
Injury-wise, Paul George is out for this one, and Jared McCain might suit up despite a thumb issue. But here’s the thing—they don’t need PG-13 with the way Maxey’s balling. The depth is real.
Bulls Breakdown: The Other Side
Chicago’s got talent, no doubt. Josh Giddey’s been a revelation with 22.2 PPG, 9.2 rebounds, and 8.7 assists—plus that triple-double against New York. Nikola Vucevic is doing his thing with 19.3 PPG and 12.3 rebounds per game, shooting a ridiculous 58.7% from the field and 53.8% from three. Ayo Dosunmu’s been efficient when he plays, and rookie Matas Buzelis is contributing 15.7 PPG.
But let me tell you what worries me about this Bulls squad. They just gave up 128 to the Knicks. They’re 1-1 on the road this year. Coby White’s out with a calf injury, and Ayo Dosunmu’s questionable with a quad issue. Those are rotation pieces that matter.
The Bulls live and die by the three-pointer—they’re hitting 40.7% from deep, which is elite. But their defense? After that Knicks shellacking where New York went 13-for-21 from three in the first half alone, I’m not convinced they can slow down the Sixers’ perimeter attack. Chicago’s averaging 30.2 assists (best in the league) with a 2.13 assist-to-turnover ratio, but that ball movement didn’t save them when the Knicks got hot.
The Bulls are great at home—no question. But this line screams overreaction to venue and ignores what just happened 48 hours ago.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided on the perimeter and in transition. Philadelphia attempts 38.2 threes per game and makes 15.5 (40.6%). Chicago attempts 34.8 and makes 14.2 (40.7%). Both teams can shoot, but here’s the difference: the Sixers just faced Brooklyn’s trash defense and dropped 129. The Bulls just faced a team that shot 47.6% from three and got torched.
Pace favors the over here too. Look at the recent history between these teams—the head-to-head shows Chicago averaging 109.7 PPG against Philly’s 106.8 PPG in their last 10 matchups. But here’s the trend that matters: 2 of the last 10 went over, and 8 went under. You know what that tells me? The market’s adjusting, and this number at 239.5 is too high based on old data.
But wait—both teams are averaging 121-126 PPG this season. The Sixers just put up 129, 136, 139, and 125 in their last four games. That’s an average of 132 per game. The Bulls scored 116, 135, 126, and 128 in their last four outings. We’re talking about two teams that can flat-out score.
The rebounding edge goes to Chicago with 46.7 total rebounds per game versus Philly’s 43.0. Vucevic’s a beast on the glass. But the Sixers block 7.0 shots per game (2nd in the league), and that rim protection matters when Chicago tries to attack inside.
Philly’s clutch—they own the fourth quarter. Chicago’s a third-quarter team. The question is whether the Bulls can build a big enough lead before Maxey takes over late. Spoiler: they can’t.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m hammering this number before it moves. Give me Philadelphia 76ers +1.5 all day, every day, and twice on Tuesdays.
The math is simple: the league’s best offense (125.7 PPG) on the road where they’re 3-0, getting points against a team that just surrendered 128 to the Knicks. Chicago’s home dominance is cute, but this Sixers squad is built different. Maxey’s playing out of his mind, the depth is legit even without Embiid, and they execute in crunch time.
The line’s a trap. Vegas wants you to see 5-1 vs. 5-1 and think the home team deserves respect. But the underlying numbers scream Philly. They’re more efficient offensively (125.7 vs. 121.7), they defend better (118.2 allowed vs. 116.3), and they’ve got the best player on the court in Maxey.
As for the total, I’m staying away. Both teams can score, but that 239.5 feels like bait after the recent over performances. If you love action, lean over based on pace, but my money’s on the side.
BASH’S BEST BET: 76ers +1.5 (-110)
The writing’s on the wall with this matchup. Philadelphia’s rolling, Chicago just took their first L, and we’re getting points with the better team. This is exactly the kind of spot where the market disrespects the road squad, and sharp money knows what’s up here. Load up and cash it.
Bet with confidence. Bet with Bash.
