Bills at Dolphins Week 10: Bryan Bash’s Complete Betting Breakdown
Nine and a hook on the road, total drifting down, Buffalo leaning run-and-chew while Miami keeps coughing it up—feels like one of those “bring your lunch pail” games.
The Line and What It’s Telling Us
Miami opened catching 9.5 points at home against Buffalo, and that number hasn’t budged. When you see a line this stable despite the public hammering the favorite, you know the books got it right out of the gate. Bills -9.5 across the board, total sitting at 50, and I’m seeing some interesting stuff in how this market’s developed.
Here’s what matters: Buffalo just beat Kansas City 28-21 at home, looking every bit like the AFC contender everyone thought they’d be. Miami? They’re 2-7 and already trading away pieces. The Dolphins scored 6 points against Baltimore on Thursday night, 6 points against Cleveland two weeks before that. That’s 12 total points in their last two games. Not 12 per game – 12 combined.
The total opened 50.5, and despite 60% of tickets hitting the over, the number’s moved down to 50. That’s reverse line movement, folks. That’s sharp money pounding the under while Joe Public dreams of touchdowns. When the big money moves opposite the ticket count, you pay attention.
One more thing on the market: Miami just shipped Jaelan Phillips to Philly. They’re selling. The front office fired Chris Grier last week. This franchise has checked out on 2025, and you can bet your bankroll the locker room knows it.
| Game Information | |
|---|---|
| Matchup: | Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins |
| Kickoff: | Sunday, November 9, 2025 – 1:00 PM ET |
| Location: | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL |
| Network: | CBS |
| Spread: | Bills -9.5 (-115) / Dolphins +9.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline: | Bills -510 / Dolphins +390 |
| Total: | 50.0 (O/U -110) |
| Weather: | 85°F, humid, heat index near 100°F |
Why This Game Goes Under
Let me paint you the picture of how this game plays out, because it’s pretty damn clear when you look at the numbers.
Buffalo leads the entire NFL in time of possession at 33:26 per game. That’s 55.72% of game clock. They’re running the ball on 51% of their plays – again, number one in the league. James Cook’s averaging 108 yards per game on the ground at 5.7 per carry. They’re methodically pounding teams into submission, and it works.
When Buffalo gets the ball, they’re keeping it. They lead the NFL with 161.5 rushing yards per game. Josh Allen’s got 7 rushing touchdowns already to go with his 13 passing scores. This isn’t the gunslinger Buffalo of years past – Joe Brady’s got them playing big-boy football, running the rock and controlling the clock.
Now flip to Miami. They’re averaging 20 points per game, ranked 26th. Their red zone touchdown percentage is 57.69% – not terrible at 17th, but they’re not getting there often enough to matter. Third down conversions? 38.53%, which is middle of the pack at 17th, but here’s the killer: they’re turning the ball over at an absurd rate. Tua’s throwing picks on 3.81% of his attempts – dead last in the NFL. Their turnover margin is -0.9 per game, also 31st in the league.
You see where this goes? Buffalo’s going to control possession, run the ball down Miami’s throat, and limit the number of drives both teams get. Miami’s going to have maybe 9-10 possessions if they’re lucky, and they’re going to turn it over once or twice because that’s what they do.
The Dolphins defense ranks 30th against the run, giving up 145.6 yards per game on the ground. Cook’s going to have a field day. Every first down Buffalo gets means the clock keeps running. Every three-and-out Miami has means another 2-3 minutes burned.
This game hits 24-13, maybe 27-10. It doesn’t come close to 50.
The Side: Can You Lay 9.5 on the Road?
Nine and a half is a big number in a division game. I get it. But context matters.
Miami’s home/road splits don’t mean much when your locker room’s already planning for next year. They’re 2-2 at home, and one of those wins was against the Jets in Week 4. The other losses? They got boat-raced by Baltimore 28-6 on Thursday night in this very building.
Buffalo’s 6-2, but more importantly, they’re executing at a high level. They just beat the Chiefs – not in some fluky way, but by controlling the line of scrimmage and winning in the trenches. They’re averaging 29.4 points per game, ranked 3rd in the NFL. Their offense is scoring at 0.468 points per play (4th in the league), while Miami’s offense is at 0.356 (20th).
The Bills defense is legit too – 9th in points allowed at 20.9 per game. Not elite, but more than good enough when your offense is sitting on the ball for 33+ minutes.
Sean McDermott doesn’t lose focus in these spots. Mike McDaniel’s already thinking about the offseason – hell, his GM got fired on Friday. The motivation gap here is massive.
Here’s my issue with the side: 9.5 is right between 7 and 10, the two most common margins in the NFL. If Buffalo goes up 17-3 and coasts, you’re sweating a garbage time touchdown. If they’re up 24-7 and take their foot off the gas, that backdoor’s wide open. That’s not a great place to be.
But if you’re taking a side, it’s Buffalo. The Dolphins are too flawed to hang around.
Where the Value Really Is
I’m attacking this game through the total and the props. Here’s my card:
Best Bet: Under 50 (-110) – 3 Units
This is my favorite play of the week. Everything points under:
- Buffalo’s time of possession dominance (33:26/game, 1st in NFL)
- Buffalo’s run-heavy approach (51% rush rate, 1st in NFL)
- Miami’s offensive ineptitude (12 points in last two games combined)
- Miami’s turnover problems (3.81% INT rate, 31st in NFL)
- Sharp money moved the total down despite public on the over
- Bills’ defensive efficiency (5.4 yards/play allowed)
The game script writes itself: Buffalo runs the ball, controls the clock, and Miami can’t score when they do get the ball. We’re looking at maybe 20-22 combined possessions instead of the typical 24-26. Fewer possessions, lower-scoring game. Simple math.
The Side: Bills -9.5 (-115) – 1.5 Units
I’m not in love with laying this number, but Miami’s got nothing. They traded away Phillips, they’re playing out the string, and Tua’s throwing picks like he’s trying to pad someone else’s highlight reel. Buffalo should win this by two touchdowns. Whether they cover 9.5 depends on late-game dynamics, but the talent gap is real.
Player Props That Make Sense:
James Cook Over 85.5 Rushing Yards (-110) – 2 Units: He’s averaging 108.4 per game. Miami ranks 30th against the run. Buffalo’s going to feed him 25+ carries. This hits easy.
Josh Allen Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-120) – 1 Unit: The Bills aren’t throwing it 35 times. Allen’s got 13 passing TDs in 8 games, but 7 rushing TDs. When Buffalo’s up and running clock, Allen’s not slinging it in the red zone – he’s handing it off or keeping it himself. I like the under here.
Tua Tagovailoa Under 225.5 Passing Yards (-110) – 1.5 Units: Miami’s going to have 9-10 possessions tops. Tua’s going to force throws into coverage because they’ll be playing from behind. He’s going to throw a pick, maybe two. And Buffalo’s going to keep the ball out of his hands. The yardage just won’t be there.
How I’m Playing This
I’m making the under my biggest play of the week at 3 units. That’s where the value screams at me. I’ll take a smaller position on the Bills -9.5 at 1.5 units because the situation’s too ugly in Miami to pass up, but I’m not getting married to that number.
The props give me some correlated exposure – Cook over plays into the under by burning clock, Allen passing TDs under plays into the game script, and Tua yards under is just reality based on possessions.
If you’re only making one bet on this game, make it Under 50. The market’s telling you where the sharp money went, Buffalo’s style tells you how they win, and Miami’s dysfunction tells you they can’t score. Put it all together and this game lands somewhere around 44-46 points.
In-Game Adjustments to Watch
If Buffalo comes out and runs for 80+ yards in the first quarter, I’m live-betting more under. That tells you the game script is playing out exactly as expected, and Miami’s got no answer.
If Miami somehow hangs around and it’s 14-10 at half, I’m looking at Buffalo second-half team total over. They’ll put their foot down in the third quarter.
If Buffalo’s up 21-3 at half, I’m staying away from the second half entirely. Too much variance with backups and garbage time.
The Bottom Line
This is a fundamentals game. Buffalo’s better at every position, they’re playing with purpose, and their style suffocates opponents. Miami’s already looking at next year’s draft. The under’s the play, Cook’s going to eat, and Buffalo wins going away.
Take the under, take Cook over his rushing number, and if you want the side, take the Bills but keep your position smaller. The value’s in the total.
Bryan Bash’s Official Card:
- Under 50 (-110) – 3 Units 💰
- Bills -9.5 (-115) – 1.5 Units
- James Cook Over 85.5 Rush Yards (-110) – 2 Units 💰
- Josh Allen Under 1.5 Pass TDs (-120) – 1 Unit
- Tua Tagovailoa Under 225.5 Pass Yards (-110) – 1.5 Units
Let’s cash some tickets.
