Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers – Week 10 NFL Picks
Prime-time matchup at Lambeau, and the market’s got this wrong. The Packers opened -2.5 and the number’s holding, but when you dig into what just happened to Green Bay’s offense, this line’s begging you to grab the points.
Game Information Dashboard
Date: Monday, November 10, 2025
Time: 8:15 PM ET
Venue: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
Odds: Green Bay -1.5 to -2.5 | Total: 45-45.5
The Rundown
Line says Packers by a field goal. The data says grab Philadelphia and don’t look back.
Here’s what matters: Philly converts field position into points at 11.71 yards per point. Green Bay needs 14.0 yards for the same result. Over 11-12 possessions, that efficiency gap is worth real money—we’re talking a 3-4 point edge that the spread hasn’t priced in.
Green Bay just faceplanted at home against Carolina, 16-13. Went 1-for-5 in the red zone and looked lost. Eagles coming off the bye at 6-2, rested and healthy, with deadline adds on defense. The situational edge screams Philly.
The Kraft Disaster
Tucker Kraft tore his ACL against Carolina. He’s done for the year.
This isn’t just losing a tight end—Kraft led Green Bay in receptions (32), yards (489), and touchdowns (6). But here’s the killer stat: Packers average 6.0 yards per play with Kraft on the field, 5.1 without him. That’s the difference between moving the chains and punting.
The market knows Kraft’s out. The market hasn’t adjusted enough.
Where This Game Gets Won
Third Down—Packers’ Lone Edge
Green Bay converts at 49%, best in the NFL. Philadelphia? Bottom-five at 33.3%. This is the Packers’ clearest path—keep the chains moving, control the clock, don’t let Philly’s offense see the field.
Problem is, you still have to finish drives. Which brings us to…
Red Zone—Where Philly Destroys You
Eagles score touchdowns on 85% of their red zone trips. Best rate in the NFL this century. Not this year. This century.
Packers convert at 63%. Middle of the pack. And we just watched them go 1-for-5 inside the 20 against Carolina’s defense.
In a tight game—and this projects as a one-score nail-biter—the team that trades 7s for 3s wins. That’s Philadelphia by a country mile.
Yards Per Play
Packers get 5.9 yards per snap (#6), Eagles get 5.3 (#17). Green Bay’s been the more explosive offense between the 20s. Doesn’t matter if you can’t finish—and without Kraft, those explosive drives are dying at the goal line.
The Numbers
| What Matters | Philadelphia | Green Bay | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yards Per Point | 11.71 | 14.0 | Eagles |
| Third Down % | 33.3% | 49.0% | Packers |
| Red Zone TDs | 85.0% | 62.9% | Eagles |
| Yards Per Play | 5.3 | 5.9 | Packers |
| TO Margin/Game | +0.5 | 0.0 | Eagles |
Jalen Hurts vs Jordan Love
Hurts: 15 TDs, 1 INT through eight games. First QB since Mahomes in 2020 to hit those marks. Elite ball security, elite red zone QB.
Love: 13 TDs, 3 INTs, solid efficiency. But he just lost his security blanket, and the weapons around him are banged up.
In a close game, give me the guy who doesn’t turn it over and finishes drives.
Recent History
Philly beat Green Bay 22-10 in the Wild Card round eight months ago. Eagles are 4-1 straight up and 4-1 ATS in the last five head-to-heads. The Packers want revenge, sure—but wanting it and getting it are different things when you’re missing your best pass-catcher.
Eagles added Jaelan Phillips and Michael Carter at the deadline. Defense just got better. Packers lost Tucker Kraft. Offense just got worse. Connect the dots.
The Bottom Line
This line should be Eagles -1. Instead we’re getting them as dogs.
Philadelphia’s efficiency edge (11.71 vs 14.0 yards per point) is real. Their red zone dominance (85% TDs) is historic. They’re rested, healthy, and improved on defense.
Green Bay’s leaning on elite third-down play and home field. That’s not enough when you can’t finish drives and your best weapon’s on IR.
Prediction
Philadelphia 24, Green Bay 20
Best Bet
⭐⭐⭐ Philadelphia Eagles +1.5 to +2.5 — Efficiency says Eagles by 3-4. Getting points is a gift. Smash it.
Why It Hits
- Superior scoring efficiency (11.71 vs 14.0 YPP)
- Elite red zone finishing beats good third-down offense in close games
- Kraft loss tanks Packers’ yards per play from 6.0 to 5.1
- Rest edge coming off bye vs emotionally-drained team after bad home loss
- Eagles 4-1 ATS last 5 vs GB—they own this matchup
The Risk
Eagles have the worst three-and-out rate in the NFL (32.1%). If they go cold and can’t reach the red zone, their efficiency edge disappears. Packers’ 49% third-down conversion keeps them in any game. Lambeau’s worth 2-2.5 points.
But even accounting for variance, this line’s off by a field goal. Take the points, sleep easy.
