Packers vs Giants Preview: Week 11 Showdown
Chad Fox breaks down Sunday’s Packers vs Giants matchup at MetLife Stadium — a 7-point spread, coaching chaos in New York, and a struggling Green Bay offense all collide in this Week 11 NFL betting guide.
Opening Setup
Here’s what we’ve got Sunday afternoon — a Green Bay Packers team that’s limping into MetLife Stadium as 7-point road favorites against a New York Giants squad that just fired their head coach. If you’re new to betting, this is what we call a “get right” spot for the visiting favorite, but the NFL has a funny way of humbling teams when they think they’ve found an easy mark.
The Packers are coming off back-to-back losses where they’ve managed just 26 combined points, while the Giants are dealing with their third coaching change in five years after Brian Daboll got axed following another fourth-quarter collapse. What makes this interesting is that New York has actually been covering spreads — they’re 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games, which tells you the market has been consistently undervaluing them.
The key storyline here is simple: Can Jordan Love and the Packers offense get back on track against a Giants defense that’s been surprisingly competitive, or will interim coach Mike Kafka get a classic “new coach bounce” from his players?
Game Details Box
Date: Sunday, November 16
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
TV: FOX
Current Betting Lines
| Bet Type | Line | Juice |
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Packers -7 | -115/-105 |
| Total Points | Over/Under 43 | -115/-105 |
| Moneyline | Packers -340 / Giants +270 | – |
Quick Translation: Green Bay needs to win by 8+ points to cover the spread. The total means both teams combined need to score 44+ points for the over to hit. That -340 moneyline means you’d need to bet $340 to win $100 on the Packers straight up — the market thinks this is a lock.
Line Movement Analysis
The line opened around Packers -7.5 and has ticked down to -7 at most books, which suggests some smart money is coming in on the Giants getting the extra half-point. Here’s what you need to understand about “reverse line movement” — that’s when the line moves toward the team getting less public betting action. If 70% of bets are on the Packers but the line drops from -7.5 to -7, that tells us the sharps are backing New York. The total has been relatively stable around 43, which is remarkably low for an NFL game in 2025.
Key Matchups
The matchup that’ll determine this game is Green Bay’s struggling offense against a Giants defense that’s been much better than their 2-8 record suggests. New York is allowing just 19.8 points per game over their last five contests, and their pass rush has been generating pressure at a 23.4% clip — not elite, but enough to bother Love when he’s already seeing ghosts.
On the flip side, the Giants offense has been putrid without a consistent running game, averaging just 3.8 yards per carry and converting only 32% of third downs. If Jaxson Dart is out with that concussion, we’re looking at Russell Wilson or Tommy DeVito under center, and neither guy has the arm strength to consistently attack Green Bay’s secondary downfield.
Why Smart Bettors Like Green Bay
- Talent Advantage — Even struggling, the Packers have more NFL-caliber players on both sides of the ball.
- Coaching Chaos — Teams are 3-12 ATS in their first game after firing a head coach over the last three seasons.
- Giants Injuries — With Dart potentially out, New York’s already limited offense becomes one-dimensional.
Betting Recommendations
Primary Bet: Under 43 Points — This number is begging us to take the under. The Giants can’t score consistently, and the Packers offense has been sputtering. In cold November weather with two teams that struggle in the red zone, 43 points feels like too many.
Secondary Consideration: If you’re feeling frisky, Giants +7 has some appeal as a large home dog with nothing to lose. But the under is where I’m putting my money.
What to Watch For
- Jaxson Dart’s availability — if he can’t go, this line should move another point toward Green Bay
- Weather conditions — wind and cold favor the under and running games
- Early game flow — if the Packers jump out early, the Giants don’t have the offense to come back
- New coach energy — sometimes teams play inspired football for a week after a firing
Bottom Line Summary
The crazy part is that everyone expects the Packers to roll here, but Green Bay hasn’t looked right for weeks. The Giants have been competitive in most games despite their record, and getting a full touchdown at home is significant. However, the offensive limitations for New York are real, and if Dart can’t play, this could get ugly fast.
The market consensus leans heavily toward Green Bay, but the smart money appears to be trickling in on the Giants. I’m staying away from the side and focusing on the total, where I think we have a clear edge.
Final Score Prediction: Packers 24, Giants 13.
