Dallas Cowboys vs Las Vegas Raiders – Week 11 NFL Picks
The Cowboys bring their top-five offense to Las Vegas on Monday Night Football, but the Raiders’ improving defense and slow-paced scoring profile make this matchup trickier than it looks. We break down the key metrics, efficiency edges, and betting angles you need before making your Week 11 pick.
Game Information Dashboard
Date: Monday, November 17, 2025
Time: 8:15 PM ET
Venue: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
Odds: Dallas Cowboys -3.5 | Total: 49.5
The Rundown
Monday Night Football brings us a battle of two struggling franchises, but the efficiency numbers reveal this line might be inflated. The Cowboys opened as 3.5-point favorites and have settled at -3, suggesting some sharp money on Las Vegas. Dallas ranks 4th in total offense at 378.4 yards per game, but that’s masking serious defensive deficiencies – they’re allowing 397.4 yards per game, dead last in the NFL. The Raiders counter with the league’s 31st-ranked offense at just 272.7 yards per game, but their defense has shown flashes, limiting Denver to 220 yards in their last outing. The market sees Dallas’ offensive firepower, but the efficiency metrics paint a different picture. Dallas is generating points at 51.9 yards per point compared to Las Vegas’ 88.7. That’s not a small gap, but when you factor in Dallas allowing points at just 64.6 yards per point versus Vegas’ 65.8, the defensive side nearly neutralizes the advantage. This total of 49.5 looks generous considering Vegas averages just 15.4 points per game, and both teams combined are averaging 44.6 points – well below the posted number.
Why Dallas Has the Edge
The Cowboys’ offensive efficiency advantage is legitimate and measurable. Their 29.2 points per game ranks 4th league-wide, fueled by Dak Prescott’s 69.3% completion rate and 257.8 passing yards per contest. More importantly, Dallas converts drives into points at a 42.1% clip compared to Vegas’ anemic 28.3% rate. That 13.8% difference scales to approximately 2.8 extra scoring drives over a typical 12-drive game. The Cowboys also excel in explosive plays, generating chunk yardage at 11.2% compared to the Raiders’ 7.8%. This matters in a game where both teams struggle to sustain long drives consistently.
The Numbers That Matter
- Points Per Drive: Dallas 2.41 (rank 4th) vs Las Vegas 1.27 (rank 31st)
- Yards Per Play: Dallas 5.8 vs Las Vegas 4.2
- Success Rate: Dallas 47.2% vs Las Vegas 39.1%
- Drive Success Rate: Dallas 42.1% vs Las Vegas 28.3%
- Explosive Play Rate: Dallas 11.2% vs Las Vegas 7.8%
- Three-and-Out Rate: Dallas 18.7% vs Las Vegas 28.4%
These efficiency gaps are substantial when projected over game volume. Dallas’ 1.14-point advantage per drive multiplied by an expected 12 drives equals roughly 13.7 additional points. The Cowboys’ superior third-down conversion rate (41.3% vs 32.7%) and red-zone touchdown percentage (64.2% vs 48.1%) compound this edge. Las Vegas forces three-and-outs nearly 10% more often, but their offensive ineptitude – ranking 31st in first downs per game (17.2 vs Dallas’ 22.4) – limits their ability to control game flow. The time of possession battle heavily favors Dallas, who average 31:42 per game compared to Vegas’ 28:18, creating additional scoring opportunities.
Market Analysis & Line Movement
The line opened Dallas -3.5 and has moved to -3, crossing the key number and suggesting respected money on the Raiders. Sharp action typically targets inflated road favorites, and Dallas fits that profile after their bye week. The total has remained steady at 49.5, which appears high given Vegas’ offensive struggles. Public perception focuses on Dallas’ skill position talent – Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens – while overlooking their defensive catastrophe. The Cowboys have allowed 30+ points in six of nine games, yet the market continues to overvalue their offensive upside. Vegas getting points at home on primetime represents classic contrarian value, especially with Dallas’ road ATS record sitting at just 2-3 this season.
Head-to-Head Efficiency Matchups
| Metric | Dallas Cowboys | Las Vegas Raiders | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Drive | 2.41 | 1.27 | Dallas |
| Success Rate | 47.2% | 39.1% | Dallas |
| Explosive Play Rate | 11.2% | 7.8% | Dallas |
| Drive Success Rate | 42.1% | 28.3% | Dallas |
| Three-and-Out Rate | 18.7% | 28.4% | Las Vegas |
| Red Zone TD Rate | 64.2% | 48.1% | Dallas |
| Turnover Rate | 1 per 18.2 | 1 per 15.7 | Las Vegas |
The situational efficiency reveals Dallas’ clear advantages in scoring zones but also exposes vulnerabilities. While the Cowboys excel in early-down success (52.3% vs 43.1%), they’ve struggled with late-game execution, converting just 38.7% of fourth-quarter drives compared to Vegas’ surprising 44.2%. The Raiders’ defensive improvement since Week 8 shows in their adjusted yards per play allowed (5.1 vs 6.2 season average). Vegas also excels in two-minute drill defense, allowing just 0.8 points per drive compared to Dallas’ 1.9. The pace differential favors Dallas (64.7 plays per game vs 61.3), potentially creating 3-4 additional possessions that could determine both the spread and total outcome.
The Bottom Line & Predictions
The efficiency numbers support Dallas’ superiority, but the market has overreacted to their offensive capabilities while undervaluing Vegas’ defensive improvements and home-field advantage. The Cowboys’ 30.8 points allowed per game represents the league’s worst defense, making them vulnerable in any spot. Las Vegas has shown the ability to keep games close, covering in three of their last four as underdogs. The total presents the strongest angle – both teams combined are averaging 44.6 points per game, well below the 49.5 mark. Dallas’ offensive efficiency should produce 24-27 points, but Vegas’ offensive limitations cap their ceiling at 17-21 points. This projects to a 45-47 point range, offering clear under value. The spread requires Dallas to overcome their defensive deficiencies on the road, a tall task against a desperate Raiders team getting points at home.
Prediction
Dallas Cowboys 24, Las Vegas Raiders 17
Best Bets
- ⭐⭐⭐ Under 49.5 (-110) — Vegas’ offensive struggles and combined scoring average creates clear under value.
- ⭐⭐ Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 (+100) — Home dog getting key number plus a hook against defensively challenged road favorite.
Game Flow Projection: Dallas takes early lead through superior offensive efficiency, but Vegas keeps it close through defensive stops and field position. Cowboys’ inability to pull away allows Raiders to cover the number while the combined offensive limitations keep the total comfortably under. Dallas needs to exceed 27 points and hold Vegas under 21 to cover – a difficult combination given their defensive struggles.
