Miami limps into Madison Square Garden short-handed and stepping into a building where New York has been dominant ATS. Bryan Bash breaks down the spread, injuries, and matchup edges for Heat vs Knicks.
The Setup: Heat at Knicks
The books have the Knicks laying 5.5 to 6 points at home against a Miami squad that just got embarrassed 130-116 in Cleveland. New York’s sitting pretty at 7-4 with a perfect 7-1 home record, while the Heat limp in at 7-5 and a brutal 2-4 on the road. This line screams “fade the public darling,” but let me tell you why the market’s got this one right.
Miami’s averaging a league-best 124.8 points per game, but here’s the trap—they’re doing it at home where they’re 5-1. On the road? That’s a different story. The Heat are bleeding 120.7 points per game to opponents, and when you’re traveling to Madison Square Garden to face a Knicks team that’s holding opponents to just 113.7 PPG at home, those offensive fireworks tend to fizzle out real quick.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date/Time: Friday, November 14, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
- Spread: Knicks -5.5 to -6 (Bovada -6, MyBookie -5.5)
- Total: 237.5 to 238.5 (Bovada 238.5, MyBookie 237.5)
- Moneyline: Heat +183 to +195 / Knicks -210 to -235
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
The books know exactly what they’re doing here. Miami comes in with the league’s top scoring offense at 124.8 PPG, ranking #1 in the NBA. That number’s sexy enough to get casual bettors drooling over the points. But dig deeper into the matchup data, and you’ll see why Vegas isn’t scared.
New York’s averaging 120.5 PPG while holding opponents to 113.73 points per game—that’s a +6.7 scoring margin that ranks 5th in the league. At home, they’re even stingier on defense. The Knicks are 7-1 at MSG with an 8-3 record against the total, and they’re 5-1 ATS in their last six games. That’s not fluky—that’s a team that knows how to defend their home court.
Miami’s road woes tell the real story. They’re 2-4 away from home, and the stats back up the struggle. The Heat are giving up 120.67 PPG overall, which ranks 23rd in opponent scoring defense. When you factor in that they just gave up 130 to Cleveland two nights ago—including 21 turnovers that Cleveland converted into 29 points—this is exactly the spot where Miami gets exposed again.
Heat Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Let’s talk about Miami’s injury situation first, because it’s massive. Bam Adebayo is out with a toe injury, and he’s their anchor on both ends. Adebayo was averaging 19.9 PPG and 8.1 rebounds with a +7.8 plus/minus before the injury. Tyler Herro is also out with a heel issue—that’s two of their best players sitting.
Norman Powell’s been carrying the load with 24.8 PPG on 47.2% shooting, but he can’t do it alone. The Heat’s offensive efficiency is legit—49.5% from the field, 37.9% from three, and 30.5 assists per game (ranked #1 in the league). But here’s the problem: they’re turning the ball over 14.9 times per game, and on the road where they’re less comfortable, those mistakes get magnified.
Miami’s rebounding is also a weakness with Adebayo out. They’re pulling down just 9 offensive rebounds per game (28th in the league) and their defensive rebounding percentage sits at 70.6%, which ranks 28th. Against a Knicks team that dominates the glass with Karl-Anthony Towns, that’s a recipe for disaster.
Knicks Breakdown: The Other Side
Now here’s where it gets interesting. The Knicks just lost to Orlando 124-107 on Tuesday, snapping their five-game win streak and handing them their first home loss. Jalen Brunson injured his right ankle in that game and is listed as OUT for Friday’s matchup. That’s huge—Brunson’s averaging 28 PPG and 6.5 assists while shooting 46.7% from the field.
But even without Brunson, New York has the pieces to handle Miami. Karl-Anthony Towns has been a monster with 10 double-doubles in 11 games, averaging 20.2 PPG and a league-leading 12.6 rebounds per game. KAT’s shooting 91.4% from the free throw line and gives the Knicks a massive advantage in the paint against Miami’s depleted frontcourt.
OG Anunoby (17.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 2.1 steals) and Mikal Bridges (15.6 PPG, 4.9 APG) give New York elite two-way versatility. The Knicks shoot 45.9% from the field as a team and 37.9% from three—not explosive numbers, but efficient enough. More importantly, they’re committed to defense at home, allowing just 113.73 PPG.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game lives and dies in the paint and on the boards. Miami without Adebayo has no answer for Towns, who’s averaging 12.6 rebounds per game including 3.2 offensive boards. The Knicks are grabbing 14.3 offensive rebounds per game (5th in the league) with a 30.4% offensive rebounding rate. Miami’s 20.5% offensive rebounding rate ranks dead last at 29th.
The head-to-head history heavily favors New York at home. The Knicks are 5-0 straight up in their last 5 games at Madison Square Garden against Miami, and the total has gone OVER in 4 of those 5 matchups. In their last meeting on October 26, 2025, the Heat won 115-107 at home, but that was in Miami where they’re dominant. On the road against this Knicks squad? Miami’s 0-5 in their last five trips to MSG.
Pace and tempo also favor New York. The Heat want to run with 19.7 fastbreak points per game (2nd in the league), but the Knicks are disciplined enough to slow it down to their preferred pace. New York’s assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.223 ranks 3rd in the NBA, while Miami’s 2.045 ratio is solid but not elite. In a grind-it-out game at Madison Square Garden, that ball security advantage matters.
The betting trends are screaming Knicks. New York is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games and 5-1 SU in their last 6 overall. Miami, meanwhile, is 2-6 straight up in their last 8 road games. The market knows this is a mismatch, and the line at -5.5 to -6 isn’t enough to scare me off.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
BASH’S BEST BET: Knicks -5.5 (-110)
I’m hammering New York at home even without Brunson. The Knicks have too many weapons, too much size, and too much home-court advantage for a depleted Heat squad that can’t defend or rebound on the road. Miami’s 2-4 road record isn’t a fluke—it’s who they are away from South Beach.
Towns is going to feast inside without Adebayo to check him. Anunoby and Bridges will lock down Powell and force Miami’s role players to beat them. The rebounding advantage alone should be worth 10-12 points in extra possessions. And with Miami coming off that embarrassing loss in Cleveland where they coughed up 21 turnovers, there’s zero reason to think they’ll suddenly tighten up against a disciplined Knicks defense.
Give me the Knicks laying 5.5 points at home. This line’s a gift, and I’m loading up before it moves to -7. New York covers this comfortably and reminds everyone why they’re 7-1 at Madison Square Garden. Final call: Knicks 118, Heat 107.
