Detroit Lions (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS)
NFL Football Week 11
Date/Time: Sunday Night Football, November 16, 2024, at 8:20 PM EST
Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
TV: NBC/Peacock
Betting Odds
Point Spread: DET +2.5/PHI -2.5 (Bovada)
Money Line: DET +130, PHI -150
Over/Under Total: 47
The Detroit Lions come to Lincoln Financial Field for a key NFC matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday Night Football. Both teams are in decent-enough shape standings-wise, with the defending Super Bowl champs going to 7-2 on MNF with a 10-7 win over the Packers and the Lions moving to 6-3 last Sunday with a 44-22 win over Washington. But we’re getting into the meat of the season, where, after some rocky moments, both teams want to make a statement with a big win in conference against two of the preseason darlings to get to the Super Bowl. Can the Lions show they’ve righted the ship with a big win, or will Philly serve notice that they’re still the top dogs in the NFC? Let’s break it down!
Status Reports for Each
Everything looks in order for the Eagles on the surface, at 7-2 overall and 6-3 against the spread. There was some concern after consecutive losses to the Broncos and Giants, but they’ve won three straight. One wonders, however, in heightened contexts such as these, whether some things will cost them. We see their defense playing well, especially after giving up just 7 to the Packers on Monday in another big conference showdown between contenders. But whereas last season we saw a bunch of great individual performances on offense, this season has seen a subdued approach, with Saquon Barkley and AJ Brown’s numbers way down, along with Jalen Hurts having some statistically-anemic weeks.
After a 4-1 start, the wheels started getting wobbly for the Lions, alternating wins and losses for the last four weeks. Most notable in this period were spells of some offensive inconsistency, along with a “D” that wasn’t really pitching in for the cause. Head coach Dan Campbell took over playcalling duties last week, and the 44-point output in the win over the Commanders looked promising enough, with a tougher NFC East foe this week, as the Lions come to Philly.
Challenges for Detroit
While it is far from a rule and we’ve seen the Lions perform well on the road this season, they do seem better at home since becoming factors a few years ago. While it’s a little early for weather to play a large role, they are still in the elements on the road and playing a really good team with a stout defense. Those are not typically conditions where you’re banking on a vintage Detroit showing. Still, after seeing their offense look so good last week with Campbell taking over the controls on offense, maybe they can test the Eagles’ offense, at least to a greater extent than Green Bay did last week.
The Eagles’ offense didn’t look too sharp against Green Bay, coming up with just ten points. At home against a more exploitable defense, you’d expect better results. Could we see Barkley put forth one of the whoppers we saw from last season? Can Hurts and the tush-push make an appearance or two? Will one of their star receivers step up? The Eagles’ defense has been good, but there is a lot to contain on this Detroit side—the two backs in Gibbs and Montgomery, all that juice at receiver with St. Brown and Williams, along with other pieces that can do damage. The Lions will be trying to do it against a good defense, but Philly might need more than just OK games from all their big guns.
Food for Thought
The Eagles are not taking things for granted or hungover from their Super Bowl triumph. But these spots mean a lot to the Lions and Dan Campbell with the chance to notch a morale-boosting win this week. If they get beaten, they face a tough string of games at 6-4, as opposed to being 7-3 with the wind in their sails that this win would provide. It’s a spotlight game with the stakes high, and those are spots where the Lions and Dan Campbell can sometimes rise to the occasion. Detroit gets a little edge in rest with the full week, with the Eagles coming off a draining MNF spot in Green Bay. The Eagles are a strange team where you don’t see a lot of offense, but their point totals aren’t low. They sort of do everything well, without really being standouts in any particular facet. It all adds up to a team that is tricky to assess, despite being so high-visibility as defending champions. Their results, though largely successful, have spanned the spectrum, and it’s not easy to feel like you’re on solid footing when dealing with the Eagles.
Take the Road Dog
It can’t all come down to current form, though Detroit did look closer to being at peak form last week than did the Eagles. Whatever issues plagued the Eagles’ offense on the road against a good Packers’ defense on Monday aren’t likely to be all that present in this home matchup. I just think that both teams have arrived at a juncture in time where there is a disparity in offensive bankability favoring the Lions. Being at home with a more championship-style defense mitigates that to some extent, to be sure, but I think it still goes a long way in this context with the Lions getting points. I’ll take Detroit.
Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:
I’m buying up and betting on the Detroit Lions plus 3 points -125.
