Play Number One
San Fran at Az
The early bird catches the worm.
And the late handicapper catches the hook.
Tuesday Morning this line was at SF -2′ all across the board, but now it’s at -2′ with extra juice, or -3 with reduced juice, after it was announced that Marvin Harrison Jr had his appendix removed (Been there, done that, NOT fun. Mine burst as they were rushing me into surgery. I was only five years old. According to my grandparents, it was touch and go throughout the night. According to the Doc, I was Knock, Knock, Knocking on Heaven’s Door. But I decided to hang around for a little while longer.)
I’m not paying 10 cents extra just to avoid a Push on a field goal, so I’m taking the Rd Fav Niners at -3, -107. And I will be kicking myself in the ass if I do end up with a Push because I had this game circled on Monday morning, saw the line at -2′, knew it was likely to go up even without an injury, and for no good reason I delayed buying it.
Before I get to the meat of my play, let’s start with some appetizers.
The Arizona Cardinals are a mess as usual/expected (maybe next time try changing the QB instead of the HC?)
They’re seated in their natural position, last place in the NFC West with a record of 3-6.
They’re 5-4 ATS, 1-3 ATS at Hm, where they’re playing this week.
And as a Hm Dog they’re 1-1.
If I said at the beginning of the season that San Fran would be wrecked with injuries, the natural response would be, “What week is McCaffrey going out, two or three?”
But, surprisingly, McCaffrey’s still in the lineup.
Unfortunately, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner are not.
Despite the injuries, the Niners find themselves at 6-4, just one game behind division leaders LA and Seattle.
They’re 5-5 ATS, but, more important to this week’s play they’re 4-2 ATS on the Rd.
AND . . . they’re 3-0 as Rd Favs.
Stat-wise, there’s a lot to like about the Niners this weekend, and a lot to not like about the Cardinals.
But here’s why this game is my main course this weekend.
From my handicapping models for picking Wrong Favorites:
WF1 says Arizona should be the Fav.
WF1 is 18-32 overall, a 64% Fade.
More to the point (and better for my bet), WF1 is just 3-11 on Hm teams.
That’s a 78% Fade.
WF2 says Arizona should be the Fav.
WF2 is 15-18 on Hm teams.
That’s below the 58% I like to use but still profitable at 54%.
And here’s the gravy on the mashed potatoes (or icing on the cake if you’re a dessert kind of guy):
When I have a match, when a game qualifies for both WF1 and WF2, the record is 2-6.
That’s a 75% Fade.
Add it all up and this is a play I have to make.
Play Number Two
Bal/Cle
One of my models for picking totals, T2, says the Baltimore/Cleveland game will stay Under.
The record on this spot this season is 2-7.
You know what to do.
(Is Lamar playing? No matter. My models are strictly math-based, unaffected by personnel changes which are usually built into the line anyway.)
This one opened at 42 and is already down to 39.
Probably won’t drop much more but can’t hurt to wait a day or two.
Side note: New York Giants also qualify for a WF1 Fade. Tempting enough with the 3-11 record but even more so now that they announced Winston will be starting at QB.
For me, there are two problems with this spot though.
First, you have to lay a hook over a TD, the line is GB -7′.
The bigger problem though is my Regular Season Wins bet on the Giants Under 5′ looks really good. If I Fade NY and take GB in the spot, and the Packers win but don’t cover, I’ll lose a unit, basically giving back the one I’m about to bank on the season wins bet.
No play on this one for me, but tossing it out there in case anyone’s looking for extra angles on the game.
My play:
Baltimore/Cle Ov (Wait)
SF -3
Recap: 0-1
Record: 6-4
Review: Tampa Bay let me down and New England surprised me, falling behind early but hanging tough on the Rd and locking it up in the 4th quarter.
