The betting market is throwing up a pretty loud warning sign heading into Saturday’s matchup in Norman. Oklahoma opened as a near double-digit favorite at -9.5, but that number has been chopped down to -7.5 even as the public keeps firing on the Sooners. Any time you see that kind of split between line movement and public tickets, you know something’s cooking under the surface. And in this case, the sharp money is making a clear statement: Missouri can control the trenches, and Oklahoma’s reputation may be carrying more weight than their numbers.
Market Read
The story starts with the move from -9.5 down to -7.5 — a full two-point drop toward Missouri with zero hesitation. That’s not noise. That’s respected bettors hitting the Tigers early and getting the number they wanted.
The total hasn’t moved off 42.5, which signals agreement from both sharp and public money that this is shaping up to be a grind. But here’s where it gets interesting: Missouri games have gone Over in 6 of 10, while Oklahoma has been an Under machine at 2-8. That kind of divergence usually tells you one of two things — either the market is mispriced on pace, or efficiency on one side is being overlooked.
Then there’s the public. Right now, 76% of tickets are on Oklahoma, yet the line dropped toward Missouri. When the crowd piles on a favorite and the spread heads the other direction, that’s always a red flag. With a typical 2–3 point home boost, the math suggests the market actually views Missouri as the stronger team on neutral turf.
Game Dashboard
| Matchup | Missouri Tigers @ Oklahoma Sooners |
|---|---|
| Date/Time | Saturday, Nov 22 – 12:00 PM ET |
| Venue | Memorial Stadium, Norman |
| Spread | Oklahoma -7.5 |
| Total | 42.5 |
| Moneyline | Missouri +260 / Oklahoma -320 |
Missouri Tigers Profile
Missouri’s offense puts up 32.0 PPG, but the real story is efficiency. They average 5.8 yards per play against defenses giving up just 4.1 YPP — that’s a huge margin.
The ground game is the engine:
- 244.2 rushing yards per game (6th)
- 5.6 yards per carry (10th)
- 58% run rate
They don’t need to be explosive through the air when they run this well. The pass game is steady at 6.6 YPA, but Missouri’s goal is simple: wear teams out.
Defensively, the Tigers are just as legit:
- 16.1 PPG allowed (9th)
- 4.1 YPP allowed (5th)
- 2.3 YPC allowed — best in the nation
The one concern is turnovers (-0.4 per game), but they don’t give opponents many red-zone opportunities to turn those into points. Missouri has covered three straight and has been a strong road team for years (9-3 ATS away).
Oklahoma Sooners Profile
Oklahoma scores 27.6 PPG, but the efficiency is rough:
- 5.0 YPP (98th)
- 3.9 YPC rushing
- 6.6 YPA passing
- 7.2% sack rate
Against a defense this stingy, it’s hard to see where Oklahoma’s explosive plays will come from.
The Sooners’ defense carries their profile:
- 16.1 PPG allowed
- 4.1 YPP allowed
- 2.3 YPC allowed
- 10.8% sack rate
They’re 8-2 SU, but the ATS numbers tell a clearer story:
- 6-4 ATS overall
- 2-3 ATS at home
- Under 8-2
Head-to-Head Comparison
| Category | Missouri Edge | Oklahoma Edge | Push |
|---|---|---|---|
| Run Offense vs Run Defense | 5.6 YPC vs 2.5 allowed | 3.9 YPC vs 2.3 allowed | – |
| Pass Game | 6.6 YPA vs 6.5 allowed | 6.6 YPA vs 6.5 allowed | Even |
| Third Down | 47.2% | 40.0% | Missouri |
| Red Zone | 86.5% | 100% | Oklahoma |
| Turnovers | -0.4 margin | 0.0 margin | Oklahoma |
Key Edge: Missouri’s rushing attack vs Oklahoma’s run defense.
Matchup Breakdown
This game is going to be decided at the line of scrimmage. Missouri’s offensive line has bullied SEC fronts all season, and if they start chiseling out 4+ yards per carry early, Oklahoma’s defense is going to feel it.
Neither passing game brings big-play upside. Both average 6.6 YPA. That shifts the focus to third downs and field position — two areas where Missouri has been more consistent.
Third-down conversion rates:
- Missouri: 47.2%
- Oklahoma: 40.0%
Red-zone execution leans Oklahoma, but the Sooners need to reach the red zone first — something Missouri rarely allows. If this becomes a field goal battle, Missouri’s style wins out.
Trends & Patterns
Missouri Trends
- 5-4-1 ATS
- 9-3 ATS on the road
- Over 6-4
- Covered 4 of last 6 vs Oklahoma
Oklahoma Trends
- 6-4 ATS
- 2-3 ATS at home
- Under 8-2
- 2-4 ATS vs Missouri
Advanced Betting Metrics & Projection
Missouri needs 12.9 yards per point, Oklahoma needs 12.6, but Oklahoma averages fewer than 350 yards per game. Against an SEC-caliber defense, that’s a tough hill to climb.
Projected score: Missouri 21–24, Oklahoma 17–21
The total is priced correctly. The edge sits with the underdog.
Rich’s Recommendation
Primary Play: Missouri +7.5 (playable to +7)
The sharp move from -9.5 to -7.5 is impossible to ignore. Missouri’s running game creates a physical mismatch, and Oklahoma’s inconsistent offense makes it tough to trust them laying more than a touchdown.
Secondary Play: Under 42.5 (playable to 42)
Both defenses sit comfortably inside the top 10, and Missouri’s ball-control approach limits possessions. Oklahoma’s offense hasn’t shown enough pop to push this game higher.
Bottom Line: Take the points with the more complete team. Missouri’s run game is the difference.
