No. 19 Ole Miss Rebels at Oklahoma Sooners
Saturday, November 14, 2026
4:15 PM ET, Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium
Ole Miss is a 1.5-point favorite at Oklahoma with a total of 49.5 at most books, and my play is Under 49.5.
How do you score 50 points against a defense that just held Florida to 203 yards, when one of the two offenses can’t run the ball and the other is missing its lead back and a starting lineman?
You probably don’t. The market has this game priced like Ole Miss’s track meet, but this is a Brent Venables game in Norman, and those look different.
Venables has a defense; Witten has a plan to hide the offense
Oklahoma is 5-4 and has been strange all year. The Sooners have alternated wins and losses every week, according to the school, and they’ve scored under 30 points in every game but the opener against UTEP. The offense ranks 109th in success rate and 126th in EPA per rush, which is a fancy way of saying almost nothing works on the ground.
The defense is another story. Oklahoma ranks second nationally in adjusted EPA per play and fifth against the pass. It held Florida to 203 yards in a 23-7 win last week, the first game with Jason Witten calling plays after Ben Arbuckle was fired. Witten’s debut wasn’t flashy. The Sooners had only one play longer than 20 yards, but they finished it off with a 20-play, 89-yard touchdown drive that ate 12:45 of clock. That’s the blueprint: keep it close, shorten the game and let the defense win it. That’s an under bettor’s dream.
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Ole Miss arrives bruised in all the wrong places
The Rebels were the fireworks show for most of the season, averaging 33.8 points a game. Then Georgia came to Oxford, won 42-7, and snapped Ole Miss’s 16-game home winning streak. Trinidad Chambliss went 18-of-34 for 170 yards and threw another interception. He’s at nine picks for the season.
“We’ve all got to own that. We’ve all got to do a better job,” Pete Golding said Monday. Golding also compared Venables’ pressure packages to what Georgia threw at his team. That’s not a comforting thought when your protection is shuffling. Starting lineman Patrick Kutas is out, and so is running back Kewan Lacy, who has 388 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. Take away the lead back and a starting blocker, then send pressure at a quarterback who has been forcing throws. Drives stall that way.
The case for the over, and why I’m not buying it. Chambliss is still a big-play threat with 18 touchdown passes and seven more on the ground, and the Ole Miss defense isn’t elite (48th in adjusted EPA per play). Georgia ripped off 11 explosive plays against the Rebels. If Oklahoma’s offense finds some of that magic, or if Chambliss hands the Sooners a short field, this could get to the 50s. The Sooners have lost to Ole Miss three straight times, including 34-26 in Norman last year. That one would have gone over.
But last year’s Oklahoma offense isn’t this one, and last year’s Ole Miss didn’t show up without its top runner. I see a field-position game decided by a couple of fourth-quarter possessions.
Projected score: Oklahoma 21, Ole Miss 20
The Pick: Under 49.5 (-112)
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