Philadelphia at Dallas & Seattle at Tennessee – NFL Picks and Predictions

by R. B. Dressler | Nov 20, 2025 | nfl

Philadelphia's Defense: Key to winning against Cowboys

Philadelphia at Dallas / Seattle at Tennessee
NFL Picks: A Side and Total

Shedeur Sanders is getting his first NFL start for Cleveland this week, making his fans very happy.
I’m happy, too. None of my models call for me putting my money on the Browns on Sunday.
But I digress.
Let’s do some handicapping.

It’s week 12.
I now have 11 weeks worth of data accumulated to help me in my Battle with the Books. As long as my models hold strong and don’t fall victim to Reversion Towards the Mean I’m in a good position to win the war and finish the NFL season with a profit.

Here are my two best handicapping models going into this week:
WF1 is 5-12 on Hm teams, a 70% Fade.
T1 Unders are 2-8, an 80% Fade.
I used WF1 to Fade Arizona last week.
I used T1 to Fade the Under in the Baltimore/Cleveland game.
I stick with what works so I’m going back to both of them this week.

Game Number One: Philadelphia at Dallas

The Cowboys, 4-5-1 are coming off a win last week, but it was against the 2-8 Raiders.
The Eagles come into this game on a four-game win streak, including Green Bay and Detroit.
At 8-2 Philadelphia has already locked up their division. Over the next few weeks they’ll battle it out with the Rams, also 8-2, for home field throughout the playoffs. They can’t afford any slipups, meaning they can’t lose games to weaker competition like the Cowboys.
But here’s why I’m on the Eagles.

From my handicapping models:
WF1 says Dallas should be the Favorite.
WF1 has a record of 5-12 on Hm teams.
That’s a 70% Fade.
WF2 says Dallas should be the Favorite.
WF2 has a record of 16-20 on Hm teams.
That’s a 55% Fade.
And here’s what seals the deal – there have been nine games this season where I had a match, where a Hm team qualified for both models, WF1 and WF2.
The record is 2-7.
That’s a 77% Fade.

What? You want MORE?
Okay, let’s get Team Specific.
Twice this season WF1 said the books made Philadelphia the Wrong Favorite.
Philly is 2-0 ATS in those games.
WF1 said Dallas should have been the Favorite against Denver.
The Cowboys lost 44-24.
For WF2, Dallas qualified once; they covered.
But twice this season WF2 said Philadelphia was the Wrong Favorite.
And the Eagles covered both games.
‘Nuff said.

Game Number Two: Seattle at Tennessee

T1 says this game will stay Under the total.
T1 is 11-15 O/Un all games, slight edge there, but it’s 2-8 on Unders, an 80% Fade.
The total on this one is 40.
Only two of Seattle’s 10 games have stayed Under this number.
Only four of Tennessee’s 10 games have stayed Under this number.
‘Nuff said again.

Both plays above are Fades. I luv Fades.
Why do I prefer Fading a system rather than betting ON it?
It’s basic math.
And a simple understanding of sports betting.
Approximately 90% of sports bettors lose.
So I ask you a simple question – is it easier to win or lose? (Clue, 90%.)
Yet, despite this, everyone’s looking for a winner. (The phrase “Needle in a haystack” comes to mind.)

If bettors see a guy on a 9-2 run (80%), they get excited and want to jump on.
That’s a mistake.
That info would have been valuable 11 games ago. Every experienced bettor knows an 80% trend is unsustainable.
Jumping on already established trends is a sure way to lose at sports betting.
On the other side of the coin, when bettors see someone is on a 2-9 run, no one gets excited.
All they see is a loser.
But not only is 2-9 the same (an 80% Fade) as 9-2 (80% going into the next bet), I’ll make the case it’s more valuable.
It goes back to the stat that says an estimated 90% of sports bettors lose.
A 9-2 run has a better chance of a trend reversal (losing its next play) than a 2-9 run has of winning the next play.
Simply put, the “90% of all sports bettors lose” stat tells us that it’s easier to lose than to win.
MUCH easier.
90% easier.
So, I Fade.
I digress. But with an altruistic purpose – I’m trying to give new bettors something to think about.

Buy Recommendations

I don’t expect the hook to fall off the Eagles, so no sense waiting for it. I’m also not in the mood to get screwed by the hook so I’m buying it.
Most houses have extra juice on Dallas +3′, giving bettors the opportunity to buy the hook off at a cheaper than normal price.
The Seattle/Tennessee game opened at 42 and has dropped. It’s easily available at 40.
May as well wait a day or two to see if another hook comes off. Worst case, grab a 40.

(Last week was a perfect example of why I post a Wait to Buy notice when it’s relevant.
When I wrote the article recommending taking Baltimore/Cleveland Over, the total was 40, down from an opening 42.
I waited and got 38.
It landed on 39.)