The Bengals +6.5 spread is the sharpest situational value on the Thanksgiving board, driven by the anticipated return of Joe Burrow. The 0.5-point line movement to -6.5 already reflects early sharp interest in the underdog, knowing Burrow’s presence immediately neutralizes Baltimore’s 5-game win streak narrative. While the Ravens’ Derrick Henry faces a disastrous Bengals run defense allowing 5.1 yards per carry (31st in NFL), Burrow’s historical dominance over Baltimore (820 yards, 9 TDs in 2 games last season) ensures this divisional battle remains a high-scoring, tight affair.
Opening Setup
Listen up, bettors — Thursday night football on Thanksgiving brings us a classic AFC North slugfest that could define both teams’ seasons. The Ravens sit atop the division after winning five straight, while the Bengals are fighting for their playoff lives at 3-8. Here’s what makes this interesting: Joe Burrow is expected to return from his toe injury, which could completely flip the script on this game.
For newer bettors, this is the perfect example of why injury news moves lines. When a franchise quarterback like Burrow comes back, that 7-point spread we saw early in the week starts looking shaky. The market is still digesting whether Cincy gets their superstar back, and that uncertainty creates opportunity.
The storyline here is simple — Baltimore needs this win to stay ahead in the division race, while Cincinnati needs to start a miracle run just to stay relevant. But don’t let records fool you. The Ravens have dominated this matchup in recent years, winning 4 of the last 6 meetings including a clean sweep in 2024 (41-38 OT and 35-34). Recent games have averaged 74 points combined, suggesting both offenses can put up points despite defensive limitations. That’s your first clue about where the value might be.
Game Details Box
Date: Thursday, November 27
Time: 8:20 PM ET
Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
TV: NBC
Current Betting Lines
| Bet Type | Line | Juice |
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Ravens -6.5 | -115/-105 |
| Total Points | Over/Under 52 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Ravens -310 / Bengals +255 | – |
Quick Translation: Baltimore needs to win by 7+ points to cover the spread. The total means both teams need to combine for 53+ points to hit the over. The moneyline shows Ravens as heavy favorites — you’d risk $310 to win $100 on Baltimore, while $100 on Cincinnati wins $255.
Line Movement Analysis
Here’s where it gets interesting — this line opened at Ravens -7 earlier in the week and has tightened to -6.5. That’s reverse line movement, folks. When the favorite gets cheaper despite public money likely coming in on the home team, it usually means sharp bettors are backing the dog. The Burrow factor is huge here. Once he’s officially cleared, expect this line to move toward Ravens -6 or even -5.5. Getting Cincinnati at +6.5 now might be the best number you’ll see.
Weather, injuries, and playoff motivation shape late-season numbers. Use our NFL betting predictions for an edge.
Key Matchups
The biggest mismatch on the field is Baltimore’s rushing attack against Cincinnati’s run defense. Derrick Henry has been money lately — 18+ carries in six straight games and 9 touchdowns in his last 6 outings. The Bengals are allowing 5.2 yards per carry, which ranks worst in the NFL (32nd). That’s a recipe for Henry to control this game.
On the flip side, if Burrow plays, he faces a Ravens secondary that’s looked vulnerable against quality quarterbacks. Baltimore’s defense has faced a parade of backup QBs during their win streak — guys like Tyrod Taylor and J.J. McCarthy. Burrow threw for 820 yards and 9 TDs in two games against Baltimore last season. That’s not a typo.
Why Smart Bettors Like Cincinnati
- Burrow’s Return — Elite quarterback coming back creates instant line value at current number.
- Divisional Context — Recent games between these teams have been high-scoring with games decided by tight margins. The 35-34 and 41-38 OT games show both offenses can execute in this rivalry.
- Ravens’ Recent Schedule — Baltimore’s five-game win streak has included some competitive opponents, but they’ve shown vulnerability when facing healthy, elite quarterbacks rather than backup situations.
Betting Recommendations
Primary Bet: Bengals +6.5 (-105) — The line is moving in Cincinnati’s direction despite public perception favoring Baltimore. If Burrow plays, this number becomes even more valuable. Even with Joe Flacco, the Bengals have been competitive in divisional games and nearly beat New England last week.
Secondary Consideration: Over 52 makes sense given the recent scoring trends between these teams and both offenses potentially getting healthier. Baltimore’s defense hasn’t faced a healthy elite quarterback during their win streak.
What to Watch For
- Burrow’s official status — any confirmation he’s starting will move this line quickly
- Weather conditions in Baltimore — could affect the total if conditions deteriorate
- Henry’s usage rate — Ravens may lean heavily on the run game on short rest
- Lamar Jackson’s status — Ravens’ QB is also dealing with toe injury and listed as questionable
Bottom Line Summary
This line feels off when you consider the recent history between these teams and the potential for Burrow’s return. Baltimore has been winning games, but they haven’t been dominant, and they haven’t faced a healthy franchise quarterback like Burrow in their current win streak. Cincinnati desperately needs wins and should get their franchise quarterback back for a divisional rivalry game.
The market is still adjusting to the Burrow news, which creates opportunity for sharp bettors. Take the points with the better quarterback situation potentially improving.
Final Score Prediction: Ravens 28, Bengals 24.
KEY_ANGLE: Burrow’s return creates line value before market fully adjusts to elite quarterback upgrade.
