Bryan Bash is hammering the points, calling the 7.5-point line a disrespect to the 14-6 Raptors. Read his sharp prediction for Raptors vs. Knicks and fade the public on the home favorite.
The Setup: Raptors at Knicks
The Knicks are laying 7.5 points at Madison Square Garden against a Raptors squad that just had their nine-game winning streak snapped in overtime? The market’s disrespecting Toronto here, and I’m paying attention. Look, I get it—New York is 9-1 at home and Jalen Brunson just dropped 37 on the Bucks to punch their ticket to the NBA Cup knockout round. But let’s talk about what we’re really seeing: The books are begging you to take the Knicks and lay the points with a team that’s 3-5 on the road. Meanwhile, Toronto sits at 14-6 overall with a 7-4 road record, and yeah, they lost in Charlotte, but that was in overtime after building a 17-point lead. This isn’t a team that’s broken—this is a team that’s been one of the best in the East all season. The Knicks are getting too much respect for beating a Bucks team that’s been inconsistent, and Toronto’s getting disrespected because recency bias is a hell of a drug. I’m hammering this number before it moves, because 7.5 points is way too many for a Raptors team that’s proven they can compete anywhere.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: November 30, 2025, 6:00 ET
Venue: Madison Square Garden
Spread: Knicks -7.5 (-105) | Raptors +7.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Knicks -290 | Raptors +240
Total: 232.0 (Over -110 | Under -110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Vegas knows something we don’t, but I’m not buying it. Here’s what’s happening: The Knicks just delivered a statement win against Milwaukee with Brunson going supernova, and the public sees that 9-1 home record and thinks this is free money. Meanwhile, Toronto’s coming off a loss—their first in ten games—and suddenly everyone’s forgotten they’re 14-6 and sitting second in the Eastern Conference. This is exactly the spot where the Knicks burn you. New York’s been dominant at home, sure, but that 3-5 road record tells you everything about who they really are—they’re a home-cooking team that benefits from MSG energy and favorable whistles. The Raptors counter with legitimate balance: Brandon Ingram averaging 21.9 points per game, Scottie Barnes at 20.0 with 8.1 rebounds, and RJ Barrett at 19.4 before the injury. Speaking of which, Barrett’s out with a knee sprain, and that’s probably baked into this line, but here’s the thing—Toronto was winning with depth all season long. They’re not a one-man show. The 7.5-point spread assumes the Knicks are significantly better, but the records don’t support that narrative. Toronto’s 14-6 overall compared to New York’s 12-6, and while the Knicks have the home edge, seven and a half points is asking me to believe this is a blowout waiting to happen. I’ve seen this movie before, and it doesn’t end well for the chalk.
Raptors Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Let’s cut through the noise about that Charlotte loss. Toronto lost in overtime on the road after winning nine straight. That’s not a collapse—that’s variance. This Raptors team is legit, sitting at 14-6 with a 7-4 road record that shows they can win away from home. The offensive firepower is distributed beautifully: Ingram leading at 21.9 PPG, Barnes doing everything at 20.0 PPG with 8.1 boards and 5.0 assists, and Barrett chipping in 19.4 before the injury. Yes, Barrett’s out, and that’s a loss, but Toronto’s proven all season they have the depth to absorb hits. This isn’t a team that lives and dies with one guy. The concern here is whether they can bounce back mentally after blowing that lead in Charlotte, but championship-caliber teams—and Toronto’s playing like one—respond to adversity. They’re second in the East for a reason, and their 7-2 home record combined with that 7-4 road mark tells you they’re consistent no matter the venue. The market thinks this is a wounded team limping into MSG, but I’m seeing a squad that’s been one of the best in basketball for six weeks straight.
Knicks Breakdown: The Other Side
The Knicks are rolling at home, and I’m not going to pretend otherwise. That 9-1 record at Madison Square Garden is impressive, and Brunson’s 29.1 PPG makes him one of the most dangerous scorers in the league. Karl-Anthony Towns is giving them 21.7 points and 12.2 rebounds per night, and Mikal Bridges adds versatility at 16.2 PPG. The problem? That 3-5 road record screams home-court dependent, and while they’re at home tonight, it also tells you this isn’t an elite team—it’s a good team that plays great in front of their crowd. The Bucks win was impressive, but let’s not forget Giannis was coming back from a groin injury, and Milwaukee’s been inconsistent all year. OG Anunoby is out with a hamstring issue, and while Landry Shamet’s absence isn’t season-altering, the depth takes a hit. The Knicks are 12-6 overall, which is solid, but they’re not head and shoulders above Toronto. They’re a three-seed playing at home against a two-seed, and the seven and a half points assumes a talent gap that simply doesn’t exist. New York’s at their best when Brunson gets cooking and the MSG crowd lifts them, but Toronto’s not going to be intimidated by the atmosphere.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This comes down to whether the Knicks can maintain their home dominance against a Raptors team that’s proven they can win on the road. New York’s 9-1 at home is elite, but Toronto’s 7-4 away from home shows they’re not pushovers in hostile environments. The public’s all over the Knicks because of that Brunson performance and the home record, but sharp money knows what’s up here—seven and a half is too many points between two teams separated by two games in the standings. The Raptors have the offensive balance to counter anything New York throws at them, even without Barrett. Ingram and Barnes can both create their own shots, and Toronto’s depth has carried them all season. The Knicks will try to push pace and let Brunson operate in pick-and-roll with Towns, but Toronto’s not a team that breaks defensively. This game should be competitive throughout, and even if New York wins, I’m not seeing a double-digit victory. The line suggests the Knicks blow them out, but the stats and records suggest a much tighter contest. Toronto’s been battle-tested all season, and one overtime loss doesn’t change their identity as a tough, resilient squad that competes every night.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking the Raptors +7.5, and I’m putting 2 units on it. This line’s a joke, plain and simple. Toronto’s 14-6, sitting second in the East, and they’re catching seven and a half points against a 12-6 Knicks team that’s 3-5 on the road? The market’s overreacting to one overtime loss and undervaluing a team that’s been elite all season. Barrett’s out, sure, but Toronto’s depth has carried them through adversity before. The Knicks are great at home, but 7.5 points is asking me to believe this is a mismatch, and the numbers don’t support it. Even if New York wins, this game stays within a possession or two. The Raptors have the talent, the coaching, and the motivation to bounce back from that Charlotte loss. I’m hammering this number before it moves, because sharp money is going to drive this line down. Take Toronto and the points all day long—this is exactly the spot where the Knicks disappoint the public.
