The Nuggets are laying a massive 11.5-point spread, but the double-digit NBA line historically favors the dog. Bryan Bash uses injury context to deliver his sharpest prediction on the spread value.
The Setup: Mavericks at Nuggets
The books are hanging 11.5 points on a Mavericks team that’s limping into Ball Arena at 6-15, facing a Nuggets squad sitting pretty at 14-5 with Nikola Jokic putting up a casual 28.9 PPG, 12.4 RPG, and 10.9 APG triple-double season. Yeah, Dallas is a disaster right now, but double-digits in the NBA? That’s exactly the spot where the market’s begging you to take Denver and lay the wood. Here’s the problem: the Mavericks just got 35 points from Cooper Flagg and watched Klay Thompson drop 17 in the fourth quarter to steal one from the Clippers. Meanwhile, Denver’s coming off a 130-112 beatdown of Phoenix where they shot 57.9% from three on 38 attempts. The public’s all over Denver here, which means we need to dig deeper before we decide if this number is real or if Vegas knows something we don’t.
Dallas is 2-5 on the road and missing key pieces with Daniel Gafford doubtful and P.J. Washington questionable. Denver’s 6-3 at home, and Jokic is probable despite a wrist sprain. The market’s disrespecting Dallas here, but are they wrong? Let’s break this thing down.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 1, 2025, 9:00 ET
Venue: Ball Arena
Spread: Nuggets -11.5 (-110) / Mavericks +11.5 (-110)
Total: 233.5 (Over/Under -110)
Moneyline: Nuggets -526 / Mavericks +385
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Look at these records and tell me you’re surprised by this spread. Denver’s 14-5 and fourth in the Western Conference. Dallas is 6-15 and sitting at 12th, looking like a lottery team. The Nuggets have the reigning MVP putting up video game numbers, and the Mavericks are trotting out Anthony Davis at 19.3 PPG and Cooper Flagg at 16.7 PPG as their leading scorers. That’s not exactly a murderer’s row of offensive firepower.
But here’s where I start getting suspicious. An 11.5-point spread means the books expect Denver to win by at least two possessions in a league where variance is king. The Nuggets just lit up Phoenix for 130 points while hitting 22 threes. They’re rolling. Jokic and Jamal Murray combined for 50 points in that game, and Murray’s averaging 24.0 PPG on the season. The market’s telling you this is a mismatch, and on paper, it absolutely is.
The moneyline at -526 for Denver screams “lay off the ML, take the spread.” That’s the trap. When a line looks this obvious, when a team looks this dominant, and when the public sees a 6-15 team traveling to face a 14-5 juggernaut, everyone piles on the favorite. I’ve seen this movie before, and it doesn’t always end the way the chalk-eaters expect. Dallas just showed fight against the Clippers with Thompson getting hot and Flagg dropping 35. Are they really getting blown out by double-digits, or does this number create value on the dog?
Mavericks Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Let’s not sugarcoat this: Dallas is a mess right now. At 6-15, they’re one of the worst teams in the West, and their 2-5 road record tells you they struggle away from home. Anthony Davis leading the team at 19.3 points per game is concerning when you remember this is supposed to be a competitive NBA roster. Cooper Flagg’s emergence at 16.7 PPG and 6.6 RPG is a bright spot, and that 35-point explosion against the Clippers shows he can take over games. P.J. Washington adds 16.0 PPG and 7.8 RPG, but he’s questionable with an ankle issue.
The injury situation is brutal. Daniel Gafford is doubtful with an ankle problem, which kills their interior defense. Washington being questionable means they might be down two rotation players against the best passing big man in basketball. Brandon Williams is also questionable with an adductor strain. That’s a lot of uncertainty heading into altitude at Ball Arena.
But here’s the thing: Klay Thompson just scored 23 points with 17 in the fourth quarter. When Klay gets hot, he can single-handedly keep you in games. Flagg is developing into a legitimate weapon, and this team just beat a Clippers squad that’s better than their record suggests. Are they good? No. Can they hang around and keep this closer than 11.5? That’s the question.
Nuggets Breakdown: The Other Side
Denver is exactly what we thought they’d be: a Jokic-led machine that scores at will and dominates when healthy. At 14-5, they’re rolling, and their 8-2 road record is actually better than their 6-3 home mark, which is interesting. Jokic averaging a 28.9/12.4/10.9 triple-double is absurd, and Jamal Murray at 24.0 PPG gives them a lethal one-two punch. Aaron Gordon’s 18.8 PPG would be huge, but he’s out with a hamstring injury and won’t be re-evaluated for four to six weeks.
That Gordon injury is significant. He’s their defensive versatility and transition weapon. Without him, they’re relying more heavily on Jokic and Murray to carry the load. Julian Strawther is also out, which thins their depth. Jokic is probable with a wrist sprain, but he’s playing through it, and if that Phoenix game is any indication, he’s fine. The Nuggets shot 57.9% from deep in that game, making 22 of 38 attempts. When they’re hitting threes like that, they’re unbeatable.
The concern for Denver is complacency. They’re heavy favorites at home against a lottery team. Do they come out with the same intensity they showed against Phoenix, or do they sleepwalk through the first half and let Dallas hang around? Sharp money knows what’s up here: this is exactly the spot where favorites can burn you if they don’t take care of business early.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the paint and at the three-point line. Jokic is going to feast against a Dallas frontcourt that’s potentially missing Gafford and Washington. He’ll get his 30-12-10, and there’s nothing the Mavericks can do about it. The question is whether Dallas can generate enough offense to stay within striking distance.
Denver’s 6-3 at Ball Arena, but they’re not invincible at home. Dallas is 2-5 on the road, but they just showed life against the Clippers with Flagg and Thompson combining for 58 points. If Thompson gets hot from three and Flagg continues his aggressive scoring, the Mavericks have a puncher’s chance to keep this respectable.
The total at 233.5 is intriguing. Denver just scored 130 against Phoenix, and they’ve shown they can light up the scoreboard when the threes are falling. Dallas needs to push pace and trade baskets to have any hope of covering. If this turns into a halfcourt grind, Denver’s efficiency with Jokic orchestrating everything will create a blowout. If Dallas can get out in transition and hit threes, they can keep it closer.
The altitude factor at Ball Arena is real. Dallas is traveling in on the second night of a back-to-back situation coming off the Clippers game. Legs get heavy in Denver, and shots get short. That favors the home team, especially late in games. Denver’s experience playing at altitude gives them a massive edge in the fourth quarter if this game is close.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking Mavericks +11.5 and I’m hammering this number before it moves. Yeah, Dallas is bad. Yeah, they’re on the road. Yeah, they’re banged up. But 11.5 points is a massive number in today’s NBA, and I don’t trust Denver to blow the doors off a team that just showed fight against the Clippers. Flagg dropped 35, Thompson got hot, and this team has enough shooting to keep pace for stretches.
Denver’s missing Aaron Gordon, which hurts their defensive versatility. Jokic is dealing with a wrist issue, even if he’s probable. And this is exactly the letdown spot after demolishing Phoenix where the Nuggets could come out flat. Give me the double-digit dog with live bodies who can score. Dallas doesn’t need to win—they just need to lose by 11 or fewer. I’ll take those odds all day.
The Play: Mavericks +11.5 (-110) | 2 Units
This line’s a trap, and I’m not falling for it. The books are begging you to take Denver and lay the wood. I’m going the other way and riding with the dog. Let’s cash this ticket.
