Chad Fox’s handicapping focuses on New Orleans’ 8-game under streak and red-zone failures. Get the sharp money total pick for this NFC South clash.
Setting the Stage
If you’re new to NFL betting, this is the kind of matchup that teaches you a lot about how point spreads work. Tampa Bay is an 8.5-point home favorite, which means the Bucs need to win by at least nine points for their backers to cash. New Orleans doesn’t need to win the game outright — they just need to keep it close.
Both teams enter in very different moments. Tampa Bay finally stopped the bleeding last week with a tight win over Arizona, while New Orleans continues to search for answers offensively. They’re averaging just 15.2 points per game, which explains why oddsmakers posted a total of only 43 points. Low totals usually mean the sportsbooks expect a slower, grind-style game.
Game Details
Date: Sunday, December 7
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa Bay)
TV: CBS
Current Odds
| Bet Type | Line | Juice |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buccaneers -8.5 | -110 |
| Total | Over/Under 43 | O -105 / U -115 |
| Moneyline | Bucs -430 / Saints +320 | – |
Quick refresher: With the Bucs at -430, you’re risking $430 to win $100. With the Saints at +320, your $100 returns $320 if they pull the upset. Think of spreads as “how much better one team needs to be,” and moneylines as “who wins straight up.”
Understanding the Line Movement
This spread opened around Tampa Bay -8 and drifted to -8.5. That’s a small move, but it usually means the more respected bettors nudged it in that direction. Nothing dramatic — just the market saying Tampa Bay is the more stable team right now.
The total staying parked at 43 tells you something too. When both recreational and experienced bettors expect a slower game, the number tends not to move much. These teams already played a low-scoring meeting earlier this season, and the matchup profile points to another one.
Key Matchup Breakdown
The biggest question is whether New Orleans can finish drives. They’re last in the league in red-zone touchdown rate, meaning they settle for field goals or come up empty far too often. Even a defense like Tampa Bay’s — which has been up-and-down — can get stops when the opponent can’t convert inside the 20.
New Orleans also struggles to generate chunk plays, which is another reason they rarely crack 20 points. Everything for them is methodical and slow, and when you need 10–12-play drives to score, any mistake derails the whole thing.
Tampa Bay doesn’t need a perfect defensive performance here. They just need to force long fields and let New Orleans run out of gas. That’s been the pattern all season.
Why Some Bettors Still Lean Saints
Even with the offensive issues, New Orleans does have a few angles going their way:
- They’ve played well as road underdogs in this matchup. Sometimes a team just matches up well with one opponent, and the Saints tend to keep these NFC South games tighter than expected.
- Turnovers can even the playing field. New Orleans isn’t great here, but Tampa Bay has been worse. In a division game, one mistake can change the whole script.
- December divisional spots bring more urgency. Historically, New Orleans starts fast in these late-season matchups, even if the overall team isn’t strong.
These aren’t reasons to love the Saints — just reasons why +8.5 isn’t automatically a throwaway number.
Fox’s Favorite Angle
Best Bet: Under 43 Points
This matchup lines up cleanly with a lower-scoring game. Here’s why:
- New Orleans hasn’t topped 17 points in six straight games.
- Their red-zone struggles kill scoring opportunities.
- Tampa Bay is winning with defense and ball control, not shootouts.
- The Saints are on an 8-game under streak — not by accident, but because their style forces it.
The first meeting finished 23–3. You don’t need that exact script again — just something similar.
Secondary Lean
Consider: Saints +8.5
New Orleans doesn’t have the offense to trust outright, but division underdogs catching over a touchdown often sneak inside the number. The history between these teams suggests the Saints can hang around longer than their stats say.
What to Watch For
- Alvin Kamara’s status: He’s their most dynamic player, and his presence matters for any Saints points.
- Tampa Bay’s first quarter: They’ve scored first in five straight games as favorites — important for live bettors.
- Weather updates: Rain or wind only helps the under.
- Game pace early: If both teams open conservative, the total tightens quickly.
Final Thoughts
This game is defined more by what New Orleans can’t do on offense than what Tampa Bay can do. Tampa doesn’t have to run away with it — just avoid mistakes. That’s why the total feels like the cleanest look on the board.
Final Score Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Saints 13
